Very busy day yesterday and today, didn't manage to do much research on the market. Took a quick peek today and it seems that the market is going into a bull trend. As far as dow futures go now, it is probably the all time highest of these few weeks! USD/Yen is also above $116, and the only and probable good news from US is bush's attempt to help the financial market with the subprime issue.
As far as I see STI, most of the counters have increased quite a fair bit, like yangzijiang, CES and CWT etc. As my account for nextview has expired, I won't be able to view intraday charts. Getting gitterly of the market, I think I better stay away for a while and catch a breather. The next 2 counters that I will be watching out is SMRT and SBS Transit. :)
what a day
As I was saying earlier in the day, STI volume was pretty low, that was why I anticipated that it wouldn't close that high. As you can see, it was trading slowly upwards with relatively light volume throughout the day, and suddenly boom! The last 10 minutes of trading had a sudden surge! It was the highest volume bar of the day!
US markets have opened, and it is running on a positive 0.5% gain, probably I will see the analysis of inthemoneystocks.com in the morning tomorrow and see the directions. :)
US markets have opened, and it is running on a positive 0.5% gain, probably I will see the analysis of inthemoneystocks.com in the morning tomorrow and see the directions. :)
29th August 2007
Another day of red in the opening, and I was still awake at 2am to see what was the result of the fed's report which unfortunately came negative towards the market. In the end, US markets close close to a near 2% drop. As I didn't have time to analyse the movement for some of the stock counters in STI, but as far as I can see for the yen carry trade and rising oil prices, it doesn't bold well towards the market.
Nikkei closed with a negative 1.82%, most likely affected by the strengthening yen dollar, which was 114.05 where I last saw it in the morning. Now, HSI has fall close to a 2.75% drop, which is around 649 pts!
I do strongly recommend people to watch inthemoneystocks.com for his analysis on the US markets, as it provides significant understanding during their intraday trading, since I doubt people will stay overnight to actually monitor the patterns.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgBFuodEULg
As for yangzijiang, as it hit the 0.618, it should retrace back to the 50% mark, which I should predict that it will close around the $1.82 price.
Until this point of time, STI is showing some similar signs as NASDAQ.
I just spent 5 minutes to indicate some stuffs, which the morning started with heavy volume of selling, which is till now, the highest volume for the day. As it is trending up, the volume is not even half of the initial volume! To me, I feel dangerous as the thin volume is pushing up the index! In this case, I would say that the lowest it go is at around 3250 as indicated, and if the candle closes below that point, more falling is expected. So, be safe, not sorry. :) The money is always there, so don't worry!
Nikkei closed with a negative 1.82%, most likely affected by the strengthening yen dollar, which was 114.05 where I last saw it in the morning. Now, HSI has fall close to a 2.75% drop, which is around 649 pts!
I do strongly recommend people to watch inthemoneystocks.com for his analysis on the US markets, as it provides significant understanding during their intraday trading, since I doubt people will stay overnight to actually monitor the patterns.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgBFuodEULg
As for yangzijiang, as it hit the 0.618, it should retrace back to the 50% mark, which I should predict that it will close around the $1.82 price.
Until this point of time, STI is showing some similar signs as NASDAQ.
I just spent 5 minutes to indicate some stuffs, which the morning started with heavy volume of selling, which is till now, the highest volume for the day. As it is trending up, the volume is not even half of the initial volume! To me, I feel dangerous as the thin volume is pushing up the index! In this case, I would say that the lowest it go is at around 3250 as indicated, and if the candle closes below that point, more falling is expected. So, be safe, not sorry. :) The money is always there, so don't worry!
YangZiJiang 28 August 2007
As said earlier, these are the charts that I used to get the $1.93 target price that was hit today:
This is the daily chart, which I based on the fibonacci retracement to determine its movement.
This is today's intraday chart:
As I was taking a look at the chart around 2 plus, the candle formed and was testing the $1.88 mark but still close at $1.84. The next 20 minutes didn't form any candles, thus it cannot determine it direction still. At that point, look at the volume, it was almost at the same high as the previous day! As it moves, the 3rd volume surge came again and then you can see for yourself what happened. :)
At the $1.92 mark, it showed that it was almost the peak already, and if you want to take a short, it seems a good chance. In any way, as far as I can predict, those pushing up the prices a $1.87 to $1.93 should probably be small time investors.. who unfortunately got conned by those BBs to jack up the price. As it hit the $1.93 mark, it was at the 0.618 retracement mark and that was the resistance point, thus falling back to the 50% mark as shown in the daily chart.
As for celestial, there was no volume practically to speak of, so no candles at all was formed basically for half the day. As of now at 12.19am, US market looks like hell and the fed's report at 2am will determine its fate. If it's fate is red, then good luck to STI tomorrow!
This is the daily chart, which I based on the fibonacci retracement to determine its movement.
This is today's intraday chart:
As I was taking a look at the chart around 2 plus, the candle formed and was testing the $1.88 mark but still close at $1.84. The next 20 minutes didn't form any candles, thus it cannot determine it direction still. At that point, look at the volume, it was almost at the same high as the previous day! As it moves, the 3rd volume surge came again and then you can see for yourself what happened. :)
At the $1.92 mark, it showed that it was almost the peak already, and if you want to take a short, it seems a good chance. In any way, as far as I can predict, those pushing up the prices a $1.87 to $1.93 should probably be small time investors.. who unfortunately got conned by those BBs to jack up the price. As it hit the $1.93 mark, it was at the 0.618 retracement mark and that was the resistance point, thus falling back to the 50% mark as shown in the daily chart.
As for celestial, there was no volume practically to speak of, so no candles at all was formed basically for half the day. As of now at 12.19am, US market looks like hell and the fed's report at 2am will determine its fate. If it's fate is red, then good luck to STI tomorrow!
28th August 2007
Woke up in the morning and saw the sea of red in the US market. Although it was a mere 0.5 percent drop, but the heavy selling came during the last few minutes of trading! From the youtube video from inthemoneystocks.com, he had identified various heavy sellings on the big financial institutions, as well as the 3 main indexes. This is not usual, as it happened right at the end of the trading day!
As such, I didn't felt good about the market, and indeed, STI opened with a negative start. But before trading started, I have already queued to sell celestial at $1.13, the price I purchased. Why did I do so? As far as I have monitored this counter, its movement have been following dow in terms of rise and fall, thus I didn't feel that it will break out today or so. When the market opened, the highest it went was at $1.14, which I should probably queued at, but I didn't dare to take the risk though. That's the strange thing, it actually opened higher than it closed! Does it mean that it's gonna do a breakout? I have no idea, looking at the thin volume, it could have been easily sold down instead too! At this point of time at 5.02pm, the last done price is at $1.10, which is one of the resistance point. if this breaks, we could probably see it go much lower which I need to go home and check out the charts.
As for yangzijiang, TA has predicted quite accurately! The target price of $1.93 had been hit and if you didn't clear at that time, you probably missed out a good opportunity to get out. As $1.93 had hit the 0.618 fibonacci retractment line, it should retract back to its 50% point and from there, decide its fate to either go up and breakout or drop all the way down! I will need to go back and check out the charts tonight to predict its movements. As far as it goes now, it doesn't seem too good. Those who bought in at $1.89 - $1.93 is quite dangerous. As of now, the closing price of yangzijiang is at $1.86.
For nikki, it only incurred a mere 0.09% fall, which is still quite ok. HSI, after doing a surge yesterday, did surprise me by doing another surge when it opened. I believe that gave traders a sign that the HK and china market was going to do another all time high. Unfortunately, it closed near to a fall of 0.91%. The european markets have started trading and it is also in a sea of red. Even in dow futures, it is now currently trading in red. This start of the week doesn't bold very well to me, unless there's some very good news or report of good sales for homes in US, I don't forsee it doing well.
Other signs to look for:
Oil, on the other hand has broken past $71.97. This doesn't look good, if oil is past $70. As for the yen dollar, it is now at 115.64-115.65, which is also below the $116 mark. Lastly, I also looked at the 10 year bond yield, which also rised since last night.
If more bad news come, then it's gonna be a tough week ahead!
As such, I didn't felt good about the market, and indeed, STI opened with a negative start. But before trading started, I have already queued to sell celestial at $1.13, the price I purchased. Why did I do so? As far as I have monitored this counter, its movement have been following dow in terms of rise and fall, thus I didn't feel that it will break out today or so. When the market opened, the highest it went was at $1.14, which I should probably queued at, but I didn't dare to take the risk though. That's the strange thing, it actually opened higher than it closed! Does it mean that it's gonna do a breakout? I have no idea, looking at the thin volume, it could have been easily sold down instead too! At this point of time at 5.02pm, the last done price is at $1.10, which is one of the resistance point. if this breaks, we could probably see it go much lower which I need to go home and check out the charts.
As for yangzijiang, TA has predicted quite accurately! The target price of $1.93 had been hit and if you didn't clear at that time, you probably missed out a good opportunity to get out. As $1.93 had hit the 0.618 fibonacci retractment line, it should retract back to its 50% point and from there, decide its fate to either go up and breakout or drop all the way down! I will need to go back and check out the charts tonight to predict its movements. As far as it goes now, it doesn't seem too good. Those who bought in at $1.89 - $1.93 is quite dangerous. As of now, the closing price of yangzijiang is at $1.86.
For nikki, it only incurred a mere 0.09% fall, which is still quite ok. HSI, after doing a surge yesterday, did surprise me by doing another surge when it opened. I believe that gave traders a sign that the HK and china market was going to do another all time high. Unfortunately, it closed near to a fall of 0.91%. The european markets have started trading and it is also in a sea of red. Even in dow futures, it is now currently trading in red. This start of the week doesn't bold very well to me, unless there's some very good news or report of good sales for homes in US, I don't forsee it doing well.
Other signs to look for:
Oil, on the other hand has broken past $71.97. This doesn't look good, if oil is past $70. As for the yen dollar, it is now at 115.64-115.65, which is also below the $116 mark. Lastly, I also looked at the 10 year bond yield, which also rised since last night.
If more bad news come, then it's gonna be a tough week ahead!
27th August 2007
Hmm, strange day today when the markets opened. Volume was very thin even though Dow,S&P and Nasdaq had obtained a significant gain. Even with thin volume, the upward trend continued! I felt that it was a mixed market sentiment in the morning due to the very thin volume.
In any case, it didn't look too well in the morning, thus i sold off my holdings of celestial (bought at $1.14) at $1.18, which the chart showed that it was the highest as I was expecting it to be at that level. Suddenly in the afternoon, the selldown came, probably due to margin calls and contra dues, which celestial dropped to a low of $1.10. As for why it had dropped, I can't seem to find out through the Internet since most of the penny stocks were rising quite a fair bit. Market sentiment suddenly felt abit bullish, but it seems bearish still, thus still quite mixed feelings.
Well, I hesitated and go in again at $1.13. At that point, the chart showed that $1.12 was a prefered and better choice. As far as I was monitoring this, at $1.13, there was alot of feeding, and it seems that some buyers were unloading slowly at that point. When this happened, I noticed Singtel dropping too. Got to buck up on this part. :)
As for yangzijiang, quite a dynamic move today, opening at $1.80, moving towards $1.84 and saw heavy resistance. Then again, heaving movement between $1.81 and $1.83.
Closing:
Yangzijiang: $1.82
Celestial: $1.13
Another few counters that I have seen moving quite a fare bit today are:
1. OKP
2. CWT
With very little volume, these 2 counters actually move up quite a substaintial amount! Dangerous in fact, if the US market is going to show some negative news, this is going to have an impact on these few counters.
My analysis still stands with celestial and yangzijiang till at least end of the week (with no major bad news), to hit the target price which the technical analysis predicted.
Yangzijiang: $1.93
Celestial: $1.18
US futures at this point is negative, so let's just see how it goes at night! :)
In any case, it didn't look too well in the morning, thus i sold off my holdings of celestial (bought at $1.14) at $1.18, which the chart showed that it was the highest as I was expecting it to be at that level. Suddenly in the afternoon, the selldown came, probably due to margin calls and contra dues, which celestial dropped to a low of $1.10. As for why it had dropped, I can't seem to find out through the Internet since most of the penny stocks were rising quite a fair bit. Market sentiment suddenly felt abit bullish, but it seems bearish still, thus still quite mixed feelings.
Well, I hesitated and go in again at $1.13. At that point, the chart showed that $1.12 was a prefered and better choice. As far as I was monitoring this, at $1.13, there was alot of feeding, and it seems that some buyers were unloading slowly at that point. When this happened, I noticed Singtel dropping too. Got to buck up on this part. :)
As for yangzijiang, quite a dynamic move today, opening at $1.80, moving towards $1.84 and saw heavy resistance. Then again, heaving movement between $1.81 and $1.83.
Closing:
Yangzijiang: $1.82
Celestial: $1.13
Another few counters that I have seen moving quite a fare bit today are:
1. OKP
2. CWT
With very little volume, these 2 counters actually move up quite a substaintial amount! Dangerous in fact, if the US market is going to show some negative news, this is going to have an impact on these few counters.
My analysis still stands with celestial and yangzijiang till at least end of the week (with no major bad news), to hit the target price which the technical analysis predicted.
Yangzijiang: $1.93
Celestial: $1.18
US futures at this point is negative, so let's just see how it goes at night! :)
1st post
Been trading for a few months, learnt alot of things. 1st rule of the game, just remember MARKET SENTIMENT is the most important thing. Why? Even XXX company can come out a report stating 200% profit, it will still not move up or even may move down due to bad market sentiment!
As for my analysis for next week, S&P should hit about 1485, dow at about 13453 and Nasdaq about 2595 before retraction. The 1.618 fibonacci retraction happens to be at the 50 day MA as well, so the downtrend may be possible. But, all these are technical analysis, it may not happen and it may still break through the 50 day MA, but hey, better to make money and not lose right. :)
My pick for STI for next week 27th Aug:
yangzijiang - $1.76 (could possibly hit $1.93, quite dangerous)
celestial - $1.15 (I expect to close at $1.18)
Why do I choose this 2? Actually you can choose any counters you like, however, these 2 have been moving in according to dow's performance and yangzijiang have been heavily traded these few days. As for celestial, I feel that this counter has been oversold to this level at this point. Much uptrend should be expected.
Labour day in US is coming soon, so trade with care! :)
As for my analysis for next week, S&P should hit about 1485, dow at about 13453 and Nasdaq about 2595 before retraction. The 1.618 fibonacci retraction happens to be at the 50 day MA as well, so the downtrend may be possible. But, all these are technical analysis, it may not happen and it may still break through the 50 day MA, but hey, better to make money and not lose right. :)
My pick for STI for next week 27th Aug:
yangzijiang - $1.76 (could possibly hit $1.93, quite dangerous)
celestial - $1.15 (I expect to close at $1.18)
Why do I choose this 2? Actually you can choose any counters you like, however, these 2 have been moving in according to dow's performance and yangzijiang have been heavily traded these few days. As for celestial, I feel that this counter has been oversold to this level at this point. Much uptrend should be expected.
Labour day in US is coming soon, so trade with care! :)
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