Interested in unit trusts or mutual funds?

Currently I have invested in Schroder Singapore Trust Cl A, an unit trust that invests mainly in Singapore Equities. You will probably be wondering, why buy during this period where the markets are so volatile due to so many factors like Portugal, weak China PMI, Fed easing of tapering etc.

STI has fallen from its high of close to 3,421 points to the current state of around 3,100 - 3,133 and holding pretty well against the 3,100 mark. I think that this correction of around 8% is pretty much a healthy re-adjustment and we may see a slight consolidation during this period. There are quite a number of reports that actually indicated that STI may break down and reach all the way to 2,800 but my take is the support at 3,100 is pretty strong as it bounced off a couple of times from there.

Looking at the US markets as well, it has been rebounding off the 15,000 mark, trading within range and there are signs that US as a whole is truely recovering since 2007/2008.

While I have avoided HK markets for this period of time, it seems that HK is heavily tagged to the China market which suffered a heavy beating for the past few months.

P&L for 2013 1st Qtr

P&L for Qtr one in 2013, though March is not over yet but more or less the positions are in place.

Currently the portfolio is down around $449.62 (-0.12%) and currently looking at the market conditions, it seems that US markets has risen to a close of 10% for Dow and Europe has been touching new highs prior to the Cyprus issue. However, Asian markets seem to be hammered everyday especially Hong Kong and China.

What we are anticipating now is the hot money to flow back to Asia once the interest in US and Europe dies off.

P&L for 2012

Kinda busy for the past 3 months.. As everyone knows, whoever is working in the bank is pretty much suffering from all sorts of attacks, especially if you are in a foreign bank. Let me post our P&L for 2012 - pretty good for what we have done so far with an increase of almost 33%!

It was a pretty good bull run for Hong Kong counters and we caught the ride. Unfortunately for 2013 YTD, Hong Kong is undergoing a heavy re-consolidation and not performing so well compared to US. I will be posting the 1st Qtr results soon. Watch out!

Hong Kong holidays...

Hong kong is having holidays for 2 days, Monday and Tuesday so we are just looking at STI to see if there's any good picks. 

Was pretty busy these few weeks with work and didn't manage to post any insights but the markets were pretty sour for the past 1 week so it was a good chance to take a short break while monitoring how the trend is building in.

2689.HK

As we did some coverage on some HK stocks, we have opened a position in 2689.HK as mentioned earlier in the week.

Previous coverage: Hong Kong stocks

As markets seem to be less optimistic after QE3 has been announced, China has been in the limelight with no expansion (luckily with no contraction) on their manufacturing numbers. It is widely acknowledged that China has to grow at least above 50 PMI to show sustainable results but it has been below 50 (ranging around 46-48) over the past 9 months and SSE is at its 4 years all time low (comparable to 2009's financial crisis).

Nevertheless, HSI has shown pretty strong resilience against the figures from China but it's not showing big movements for penny stocks like 2689.HK. Looking at the charts below:

Trending in between $3.82 - $4.30 for the past 1 week, it didn't had an opportunity to actually break above $4.40 and the 100d MA is showing good resistance for breakout (it touched on 21 Sept). Looking at the stochastics, it is still on the high band and looks like more of a upward movement and notice the 20MA which is going near to the 50MA which signals a potential breakout as well. 

Our target price for this counter is at $4.60 - $4.65 depending on market sentiments and cut price at $3.75. 

Your thoughts? 

Watch out for 2689.HK!

We opened a position on this and will cover it soon! Watch out for this space!

Noble..

As we mentioned this earlier this week, we were looking at this stock with some potential of uptrend. 

Not in it yet but worth keeping it in your watchlist and wait for clearer signs to come out. 

Company name: Noble Group Ltd

Company code: NOBG.SI

About:  Noble Group Limited (Noble) is an investment holding company, engaged in managing the global supply chain of agricultural, industrial and energy products; ship ownership, chartering and the provision of technical ship management services; trade finance; coal mining, soybean and sugar cane crushing activities and ethanol production. Noble operates in three segments: Agriculture, Energy, and Metals, Minerals and Ores. On December 21, 2011, it acquired a 51% interest in Blackwood Corporation Limited. On June 11, 2012, the Company incorporated Noble Chartering Marshall Islands Limited. On June 14, 2012, the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Noble Jade B.V., acquired 90.74% interest in Karakubske Khlibopryimalne Pidpryemstvo LLC. In August 2012, its wholly owned subsidiaries, Temmar Netherlands B.V. and Noble Netherlands B.V., sold 100% interest in Temmar - Terminal Maritimo Do Maranhao S.A. to Terminal Quimico de Aratu S.A. - Tequimar, which is controlled by Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.

Looking at recent movements, there was a small gap up from $1.19 to $1.21 from Thursday to Friday and closed above its 20MA. The 50MA and 100MA has also touched but not showing any clear indication whether it will be an uptrend or resistance point yet. Noting that the Stochastics and MACD seems to be picking up but it is still unclear whether we are expecting a consolidation here or break out. Next week would probably be good to monitor this as Noble has been fluctuating along this price range and $1.27 to $1.29 would be the next potential resistance point since it retracted from there for the past 2 weeks. 

Your thoughts? 

Noble..

Looking at Noble.. Will post some comments on that shortly!

Our positions so far...

Here is just a review of our positions so far from Aug:

Singapore positions:
YangZiJiang: B@$1.03, S@$1.005 (down 2.42%)
IEV: B@$0.565, S@$0.5575 (down 1.32%)
CNMC: B@$0.345, C@$0.365 (up 5.79%)
Wilmar: B@$3.18, C@$3.15 (down 0.94%) *note that during this period when the buy call was made, there was a dividend of $0.02c!
Genting: B@$1.345, C@$1.36 (up 1.12%)

Hong Kong positions:
2689.HK: B@HK$3.69, S@HK$4.00 (up 8.4%)

Not too bad, noting the fact that markets were turning slightly sour for the past two weeks. We are currently looking at the Hong kong market as it looks to have much more potential than Singapore market so watch out for this space!

Update on Yangzijiang

We decided to cut our position in this stock as it reached our cut price and doesn't seem to hold its resistance..

STI's performance on Friday

Late post but better than never, our positions remained the same for the Singapore market and volume was once again pretty low in Singapore but the gap down was very minimal. 

Looking at Genting - possible breakout this coming Monday and hitting our target price! CNMC has been trending up and we believe that it will hit our target price pretty soon if market conditions are still favorable! 

Have a great weekend! 

IEV Holdings Ltd

One counter that we have a position on is IEV Holdings. Pretty interesting where we open a position midday after noticing some trends and fitting into our model. 

Company name: IEV Holdings Ltd
Company code: IEVH.SI
About: IEV Holdings Limited (IEV) offers a range of integrated engineering solutions (IES) to support the offshore oil and gas industry in the Asia Pacific region. The Company provides engineering services to companies in the offshore oil and gas sector, such as offshore platform operators and engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning (EPCIC) contractors. It has operations in Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam and sales and representative agreements with its agents in Europe, United States, India and China to promote and market its MGC products and services. The Company’s IES is categorized into six main divisions: jacket and pipeline installation solutions (JPIS), structural integrity solutions (SIS), inspection, repair and maintenance solutions (IRMS), life extension solutions (LES), decommissioning solutions (DS) and rigless well intervention solutions (RWIS). In March 2012, it incorporated IEV Energy Investment Pte. Limited in Singapore.

Possible good entry price: $0.565

Target price: $0.62

Cut price for us: $0.51 

Estimated holding time: 1 month or less

Looking at its chart today, we manage to see that it has broken its 50d MA and stayed above today. Resistance was met at $0.585 and retracted to close at $0.57. Looking at its movement currently, it seems to have consolidated for more than a week and today it broke out but hit the resistance that could be seen 2 weeks back. Will we be expecting that it would be hitting $0.585 again and not break out from there? Hard to determine that while we look at the current European and US markets which is down close to 0.8% - 1% at the moment, we still think there's a good chance to hit our target price! 

Your thoughts? 

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding

As I was mentioning in the afternoon, we have a position in this stock since yesterday but didn't had the chance to do some analysis on this. 

Company name: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd

Company code: YAZG.SI

About: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. is an investment holding company. It is engaged in the agency service for shipbuilding and related activities. It operates in two segments: Shipbuilding segment and Investment segment. The principal activities of shipbuilding segment are that of shipbuilding, ship breaking, offshore marine equipment construction, and ship design. On March 1, 2011, it acquired 40% interest in Jiangsu Yangzi Xinfu Shipbuilding Co., Ltd, which subsequently increased its interest to 60%. On April 10, 2011, the Company acquired 54.47% interest in Jiangsu Runzhou Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. On July 29, 2011, it acquired 60% interest in CS Marine Technology Pte. Ltd. On August 24, 2011, the Company acquired 31.5% interest in Wuxi Runyuan Technology Micro-finance Co., Ltd. On December 5, 2011, the Company acquired Jiangsu Huayuan Metal Processing Co., Ltd. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company acquired 15 hectares of land to expand its yard-New Yangzi Yard.

Chart source: Reuters

This is an interesting counter for today. Even though the Singapore markets is pretty hot today, with Genting gaping out and Wilmar having some movements as well, we do not see any much movement from YZJ apparently. It was pretty range bound trading and couldn't break above $1.03 today. Looking at the charts, it's hitting a 50d MA and we probably need to see if YZJ could break out. 

Possible good entry price: $1.02 - $1.03 (we are actually in at $1.033 average)

Target price: $1.10

Cut price for us: $0.99 

Estimated holding time: 1 months

There's quite a number of actions today, especially on Wilmar, Genting, CNMC which we did cover. Especially for CNMC, the gap up was pretty good and we are on track for that! We will cover another stock that we have also just entered into a position today, which is IEV. 

Your thoughts? 

Watch out for Yangzijiang..

Currently having positions in this, watch out for the review soon!

CNMC

Here's some analysis on CNMC as one of the stocks that we are looking at:

Company name: CNMC Goldmine Hldg Ltd
Company code: CNMC.SI
About: CNMC Goldmine Holding Limited is engaged in the business of exploration and mining of gold and the processing of mined ore into gold dore for subsequent sale. The Company operates in two segments: gold mining and other operations. The gold mining includes exploration, development, mining and marketing of gold. Other operations include investment holding company and provision of corporate services. Its projects include Sokor Gold Project and Nalata Project. The Sokor Gold Project is approximately 80 kilometers southwest of Kota Bharu, the state capital of Kelanta. In July 2010, CMNM achieved its maiden gold pour from the Sokor Gold Project, producing approximately 93.018 ounces of gold dore, which contained approximately 76.252 ounces of refined gold.

Chart source: Reuters

Being listed on October 2011, it has fallen from its high of $0.67 till its current price of $0.35 as of today's closing. Volume is kinda thin for this counter but looking at the trend it's going into since June, it is bending towards a slight uptrend and based on our technical analysis model, we are looking at a possible target price of $0.41. However, we want to be wary of current market conditions as well, as we wanted to be in a more favorable position to enter into this stock. 

Possible good entry price: $0.33 - $0.345

Target price: $0.41

Cut price for us: $0.29 

Estimated holding time: 1-2 months

What's your thoughts on this stock? 

Some stocks to put in your watchlist

Currently looking at CNMC and HISAKA at the moment.. will post some insights on these two counters soon!

Observations on Wilmar

As I mentioned about Wilmar earlier, this is another counter that we have a position in as well. Looking at the results it posted recently, profits were down almost by 70% on its 2nd quarter results and it could be seen in the charts below where it dropped from $3.40 to close to around $3.10 on 15 Aug opening. 

Good entry price: $3.17 - $3.20
Target price: $3.8
Cut price for us: $2.92 (close to 10% fall)
Estimated holding time period: 2 months

Company name: Wilmar International Ltd 
Company symbol: WLIL.SI
About: Wilmar International Limited operates in seven segments: palm and laurics, comprising the merchandising and processing of palm oil and laurics; oilseeds and grains segment, comprising the merchandising and processing of edible oils, oilseeds and grains; consumer products, which comprises packaging and sales of consumer pack edible oils, rice, flour and grains; plantation and palm oil mills, which comprises oil palm cultivation and milling, and milling segment, which comprises milling of sugarcane to produce raw sugar and by-products. In May 2012, it established Wilmar Switzerland SARL; increased its interest in Natalie Shipping Co Pte. Ltd. to 100%, and Wilmar Europe Holdings B.V. transferred its interest in Wilmar America Inc. In June 2012, it established Biochim SA Yihai (Lianyungang) Speciality Fats Industries Co., Ltd, PT Wilmar Air Indonesia and Piermont Holdings Limited. In July 2012, it established associated companies.

Chart source: Reuters


However, we also want to look at the sell down that occurred in May after it's 1st quarter results. If we look at the volume that occurred, the sell down in Aug is relatively lower than in May even though profit fall in May was 34% compared to 70% in 2nd quarter! 

Looking at the charts for the past 3 years, Wilmar has hit its 3 years low and alot of negative sentiments have been brewing around them. The last time it was at this lows was in Apr-May 2009 period! 

This is some fundamental analysis here, now back to why we entered a position in this counter. We probably look at 2 resistance point in the charts, one at $3.30 (20d moving average) and one at $3.46 (50d moving average). Looking beyond that, we probably look at some resistance here and there between $3.46 to $3.80 (still below 100d moving average). Based on our model that we derived, we are looking at $3.80 which is around 20% gain and around 10% cut price which has to break below $3 (an imaginary resistance). With much upside and downside that we envisioned, we took the bite and enter this counter! 

That's pretty much on Wilmar but as I always say, trade with caution as markets can swing both ways and we can't wait for things to happen! Let us know your thoughts on this counter! 

Coming up next..

Will be posting some insights on our next counter - Wilmar soon.. watch out for this space!

Genting Singapore PLC - When will the West Zone deliver?

Been some time since we posted any views on Singapore stocks. Today let's cover one that we have positions in. Our views on Genting: 

Good entry price:	$1.34 - $1.35
Target price:	$1.42
Estimated holding time period:	1 month

The targeted price is based on current stock movement, current volume which is picking up and some trends that is based on technical analysis which is specifically created to target the Singapore stock market. Do note that the target price and estimated holding time period may change depending on the market conditions and trade with care. 

Chart source: Reuters

Stock code: GENS.SI

Company name: Genting Singapore PLC

About: Genting Singapore PLC is an investment holding company. The principal activities of the Company include the development and operation of integrated resorts, operation of casinos, provision of sales and marketing support services to leisure and hospitality related businesses and investments. The operations in Malaysia, Alderney and other geographical areas in the Asia Pacific are sales and marketing services, online gaming and information technology services. On 27 December 2011, it incorporated Legold Pte. Ltd. On 8 December 2011, it incorporated North Spring Capital Blue LLC, North Spring Investments LLC and Pacific Sky LLC. On 28 December 2011, it acquired Dynamic Sales Investments Limited, Grand Knight International Limited and Greenfield Resources Capital Limited. On 12 September 2011, it acquired Blue Shell International Limited. On 4 November 2011, Calidone Limited and Star Cruise (C) Limited disposed their interest in WorldCard International Limited and its subsidiaries.

Here's the coverage from some brokerage recently as well: 

Source: Investor Central

Q2 Revenue down 3%, Net Profit drops 43%

16/8/2012 – Genting Singapore anticipates improvement in cash flow in 2013 as its capex will slow down and the West Zone of its Resorts World Sentosa will generate additional revenue.

The casino operator also says it fully supports the proposed amendments to the Casino Control Act by the Singapore government.

The company just announced earnings for Q2 FY12:

Revenue: -3% to S$702.2 mln
Profit: -43% to S$138.5 mln
Fair value gain on derivatives: S$11.4 mln vs Nil
Cash flow from operations: S$426.4 mln vs S$318.3 mln
Dividend: Nil

DBS Vickers calls the results 'unexciting' as H1 EBITDA was only 40% of its full-year estimate.

Despite reducing its EBITDA estimate for FY12-FY14 by 3%-6%, DBS Vickers maintains a HOLD rating on the stock with an unchanged target price of S$1.17.

OCBC finds the results slightly below expectations but is worried about the more depressed economic outlook and its impact on the company’s performance.

Therefore, OCBC maintains a BUY rating but with a sharply lower target price of S$1.66 from S$1.97 previously.

Interestingly, Kim Eng's report is titled 'shortfall in 2Q12 results' but in the opening paragraph it says the results were ‘inline’ with estimates.

The broker has cut its earnings estimate for FY12-FY14 by 10%-15%, as it expects VIP volumes to be lower than earlier estimates. 

Therefore, Kim Eng maintains a HOLD rating with a lower target price of S$1.31 from S$1.40 earlier. 

Some potential stocks to watch out from HSI

Some stocks that we identified that has potential of profiting from. Put this in your watch list and watch out this space! 

Stock Quote: 3800.HK

Company name: GCL Poly Energy Holdings Ltd

About: GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacturing of polysilicon and wafers for the solar industry, as well as the development, management and operation of environmental friendly power plants. It has two segments: solar business, which manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafer to companies operating in the solar industry, and power business, which comprises the development, construction, management and operation of power plants and sales of coals. Power plants include coal fuelled cogeneration plants, resources comprehensive utilization cogeneration plants, gas fuelled cogeneration plants, biomass fuelled cogeneration plants, an incineration plant, a wind power plant and others. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 21 power plants. As of December 31, 2010, its total installed capacity was 1,125.5 megawatts. On March 30, 2010, it acquired 70.19% interests in Konca Solar Cells Co., Ltd. On May 23, 2012, it acquired Charm Team Limited. (source: reuters)


Stock Quote: 2866.HK

Company name: China Shipping Container Lines Co Ltd

About: China Shipping Container Lines Company Limited is principally engaged in operation and management of container shipping. The Company is also involved in the provision of port services. The Company operates Pacific lines, Europe/Mediterranean lines, Asia-Pacific lines and China domestic lines, among others. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company handled approximately 7,438,002 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The Company operates its businesses in domestic and overseas markets. (source: reuters)

Stock Quote: 2689.HK

Company name: Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Ltd 

About: Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is engaged in manufacturing of linerboard, corrugating medium and certain types of coated duplex board. The Company also manufactures specialty paper, wood and bamboo pulp and produces unbleached kraft pulp. Its linerboard category includes kraftlinerboard, testlinerboard, white top linerboard and coated linerboard. The Company classifies different classes of products into Nine Dragons and Sea Dragon. The Company's other products include coated duplex board and white board. It classifies different classes of products into Land Dragon kraftlinerboard, Sea Dragon testlinerboard and Land Dragon testlinerboard. The Group offers corrugating medium ranging from 50 to 180 grams per square meter, of which light weight corrugating medium include 50, 60 and 70 gram per meter square. The Company offers uncoated woodfree paper of 55 to 140 gram per square meter. As of June 30, 2011, the Company had a production capacity of 11.45 million tons per annum. (source: reuters)