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Just a year after being relegated to the pile of near-dead banks crushed by the credit crisis, Citigroup is back.
Investors both big and small have been taking massive stakes of Citi's shares that at this time in 2009 were teetering around the $1 mark.
AP Vikram Pandit |
The venture to the brink of penny-stock territory was a torturous one, but that all seems to have changed as Citi's top officials are assuring investors that a return to profitability is on the horizon.
The company's return from its seemingly destined march to the graveyard has coincided with the rising star of embattered CEO Vikram Pandit.
"For the most part, Citi's done a good job of improving its balance sheet and its capital position," said David Konrad, banking analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. "It's going to be a long, long road there, but he's actually got a little bit of momentum on his side now."Based on the aggregated intelligence of 135,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, banking behemoth Citigroup (NYSE: C) has received a distressing two-star ranking.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Citigroup's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.
Citigroup facts
Headquarters (founded) | New York, N.Y. (1812) |
Market Cap | $43.6 billion |
Industry | Financial Services |
TTM Revenue | $34.69 billion |
Management | CEO Vikram Pandit President William McNamee |
TTM Return on Equity | (12.7%) |
5-Month Return | 267% |
Competitors | Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) |
CAPS members bearish on C also bearish on | JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Ford Motor (NYSE: F) |
CAPS members bullish on C also bullish on | General Electric (NYSE: GE) Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) |
Sources: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's, and Motley Fool CAPS. TTM = trailing 12 months.
Over on CAPS, fully 1,698 of the 8,338 members who have rated Citigroup -- some 20% -- believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include bankerman13 and EmmaBem.
Last month, bankerman13 tapped Citigroup as a zombie that needs to be slayed:
This bank is running on government batteries. It won't show a profit for several years to amount to anything. ... Another GM and it keeps all the other banks from showing the improvement they deserve. Break it up. It's worth more that way than being a socialistic run bank.
In a more recent pitch, EmmaBem singled out the stock as a relatively unattractive banking option:
What do you think about Citigroup, or any other stock for that matter?I really want to like Citi, it is so cheap and with the performance of the other banks, I have to think Citi will become a profitable giant once again. But then, I say to myself, why gamble on Citi when you can invest in Bank of America or Wells Fargo, both are still cheap and promise much less government intervention and much more profit. Citi may end up above $5 by the end of the year, but, for my money, [Bank of America] or [Wells Fargo] are a safer and equally profitable investment.
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) plans to swap common stock for as much as $33 billion of preferred shares, and convert as much as $25 billion of preferred shares held by the U.S. Treasury into common stock.
Citigroup said the swap could make it one of the world's best-capitalized banks, adding up to $61 billion of tangible common equity and $64 billion of Tier-1 common equity. It had planned to begin the swap in April.
The exchange offer could result in the issuance of more than 17 billion new common shares, diluting the holdings of existing investors by 76%. The public exchange offers expire July 24.
Link: http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/10/news/companies/citigroup_stock_swap.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009061008In a widely anticipated move, Dow Jones & Co said technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc will replace GM, which filed for bankruptcy Monday morning. Travelers Co , a large home, auto and commercial insurer, will take the place of Citigroup due to the bank's restructuring and the government's "large and ongoing stake."
Sadly, Citi and AIG might be the next in line for the world to see how they tear down their walls and furniture to keep themselves afloat?
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Citigroup Inc. may need to generate up to $10 billion in new capital to meet the requirements of the U.S. government's stress tests, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site Friday.
Like other financial institutions, the bank is in talks with the Federal Reserve about whether it needs more capital.
Citigroup may need less if regulators accept its arguments about its financial health. In a best-case scenario, Citigroup could have a roughly $500 million cushion above what the government requires, the paper reported, citing unnamed sources.
Calls to Citigroup were not immediately returned. A spokesman for the U.S. Treasury had no comment.
The government created the stress tests as a way to measure the capital needs of the nation's 19 largest banks and their ability to withstand a variety of economic scenarios.
According to a government source, the results are expected to be released to banks on Tuesday and publicly on Thursday.
Analysts believe the government will say all 19 banks are solvent, but that some will need to drum up more capital than others to cushion themselves as the U.S. recession deepens.
The results are expected to show that the banks must raise about $150 billion or more in fresh capital, a scenario that is likely to test the stocks of the neediest banks next week.LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Citigroup is seeking U.S. government approval to award special bonuses to several of its key employees, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
The bank wants to use the bonuses to retain staff and raise morale among employees, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
The report said that Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) CEO Vikram Pandit pushed for stock-based bonuses at a meeting with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner earlier this month.
Taxpayers have lashed out at bonuses paid out to employees of bailed out financial institutions. Bonuses at American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) and Merrill Lynch (MER) incited rage and created a storm in Washington.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investor outrage boiled over during Citigroup's annual shareholder meeting Tuesday, as shareholders picked apart company management for what they viewed as a litany of failures over the past year.
But even as tensions flared, efforts aimed at reshaping the bank, including ejecting long-standing directors, fell flat.
Ten incoming members of the company's board of directors, some of whom have been in place for two decades, were affirmed by shareholder votes, according to preliminary results released by the company.
Investors also confirmed four new directors to its board that were proposed in March, including former U.S. Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500) chief Jerry Grundhofer, onetime Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anthony Santomero and ex-Pimco executive William Thompson.
A wide variety of shareholder proposals, including one that would have effectively established an election for directors, was among those that failed.
With an estimated 1,500 shareholders in attendance, Tuesday's event became a forum for angry investors that have seen their personal fortunes evaporate over the past year.
Much of that blame was squarely aimed at Citi's top management, including many of its long-standing board of directors.
"These directors have served long enough - it is time for them to go!" said Richard Ferlauto, the director of corporate governance and pension investment at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME.
"This great institution was brought to its knees by a very few people," roared another investor.
Others groused about how members of the board were chosen, contending that it bordered on communism, leaving investors virtually no choice in the matter.
"The election you are holding today is very similar to the one they held in Cuba to re-elect Raul Castro," said William Steiner, one shareholder who sponsored one of the nine shareholder proposals that were put up for a vote this year.
There were also some jeers for former interim chairman Robert Rubin, who stepped down from the company's board earlier this year following scrutiny about his role in allowing the financial giant to overextend itself in the U.S. housing market.Attempting to defuse some of the tension was long-time board member and current chairman Richard Parsons as well as current Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit. (Parsons was formerly chairman and CEO of Time Warner, the parent company of CNNMoney.com.)
Pandit, who was installed to lead the bank in late 2007 just as Citigroup's troubles began to compound, pledged to complete efforts aimed at turning around the embattled bank. But he acknowledged that "challenges" remained ahead.
"I intend to see this through," Pandit said.
There has been increased speculation recently that Pandit's days at Citigroup could be numbered if the company winds up requiring an additional capital injection. So far, Citigroup has been one of the biggest recipients of taxpayer assistance, taking in $45 billion in government funds.
The government is currently conducting stress tests of the nation's largest banks to determine if banks need more capital. The results of those tests are due to be announced in early May.
Pandit, however, maintained that the company will repay every dollar under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, with a great return for taxpayers.
The company is expected to make $3.4 billion in dividend payments to the government every year in exchange for the funds.
Tuesday's meeting comes less than a week after the company delivered its first profitable quarter in more than a year, surprising Wall Street analysts.
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) shares soared Tuesday, finishing more than 10% higher on the New York Stock Exchange.Citigroup posted a $2.5 billion gain because of an accounting change adopted in 2007. Under the rule, companies are allowed to record any declines in the market value of their own debt as an unrealized gain. The rule reflects the possibility that a company could buy back its own debt at a discount, which under traditional accounting methods would result in a profit.
The bank still faces speculation about its survival prospects, as reflected in the elevated prices for its credit- default swaps, a type of instrument that investors use to insure against a debt default. Citigroup’s credit-default swaps as of yesterday were trading at 557, up from 193 at the end of last year. By comparison, rival New York-based bank JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s swaps are trading at 174. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s swaps were at 322 a week before the U.S. securities firm filed for bankruptcy last September.
When a credit default swap moves from 193 to 557 (188% gain), it shows the market thinks the chance of Citigroup defaulting has increased quite substantially since January 1, 2009.
Our Approach To Current Bullish Conditions: This detailed article acknowledges the possibility of a bottoming process in some risk assets and stresses the need for patience.
This old Bloomberg article sites research that found "retests of bear market lows occur 86% of the time", which clearly supports remaining patient.
Citigroup's health is slowly improving, but the bank's owners are stuck paying for its costly rehabilitation.
The New York-based financial giant returned to the black Friday after five quarterly losses, saying it swung to a $1.6 billion profit. Citi (C, Fortune 500) cited stronger trading results and a 23% drop in operating costs, driven by 13,000 job cuts during the latest quarter.
But common shareholders, who are the ultimate owners of the struggling bank, are still waiting to enjoy the fruits of CEO Vikram Pandit's turnaround push.
That's because as accounting rules dictate, Citi calculated its profit before deducting the costs related to preferred shares. The bank has issued these in droves in recent years, to the government and private investors alike, in a bid to bolster its capital cushion against souring loans and trading bets gone bad.
Paying for the preferred shares has gotten expensive, as a look at Friday's earnings statement shows. In the first quarter alone, Citi paid out $1.2 billion in preferred stock dividends. It also took a $1.3 billion hit when the price on some convertible preferred shares it sold in January 2008 reset.
Those costs come out of common shareholders' pockets - which is why the bank ended up posting a loss of 18 cents a share in a quarter that was otherwise profitable.
The unusual split - a profit for the bank but a loss for the shareholders - highlights the cost of the blizzard of preferred stock Citi has issued since Pandit took over at the end of 2007.
In his first two months at the bank's helm, Citi issued $30 billion in preferred shares to private investors around the globe. Since last fall, the bank has issued an additional $45 billion of preferred stock to the government.
Despite the huge sums raised by Citi via the preferred share sales, investors have continued to fret about the health of the bank's balance sheet as real estate prices tumble and more consumers fall behind on their auto and credit card payments.
In hopes of quelling worries about the bank's capital and ending talk of nationalization, the government announced a plan in February to convert the bulk of Citi's preferred shares to common shares.
Citi said Friday that the conversion, which had been scheduled to take place this month, will be delayed until regulators complete their stress tests on the 19 biggest U.S. banks. Results are expected by early May.As a result of the swap, private sector holders of existing preferred shares will end up owning 38% of Citi and taxpayers will own 36%.
The conversion will reduce Citi's preferred dividends. That should mean that when Citi posts a profit in future quarters, common shareholders will share in them.
But the downside for current shareholders is that the preferred-to-common conversion will result in the issuance of billions of new common shares - which will reduce their stake in the company by three-quarters.
Still, given how poorly Citi has done since the collapse of the credit boom nearly two years ago - it had rung up $28 billion in losses since its last profit back in the third quarter of 2007, and saw its shares dip below a dollar each earlier this year - investors and taxpayers will gladly take even modest progress.
And there were signs Friday that Citi is, like the other giant financial institutions that have posted their first-quarter numbers this month, enjoying the benefits of cheap government-backed funding and less competitive financial markets.
Thanks to federal programs that allow big financial companies to borrow at low, subsidized rates, Citi's net interest margin - the difference between the bank's lending rates and its borrowing costs - rose half a percentage point from a year ago, to 3.3%.
Like its rivals JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Citi posted a strong quarter in its trading business. The bank's securities and banking unit posted a first-quarter profit of $2 billion, reversing the year-ago loss of $7 billion, which was driven by writedowns of Citi's exposure to subprime mortgage securities.
Citi said revenue at its fixed income markets business hit $4.7 billion, "as high volatility and wider spreads in many products created favorable trading opportunities."
But as with its peers, there are questions as to whether Citi will be able to replicate that trading performance in coming quarters.
More than half of the first quarter's fixed income revenue - $2.5 billion worth - came from a valuation adjustment on Citi's derivatives books, mostly due to a widening of the bank's credit default swap spreads.
Credit default swaps are insurance-like contracts. Widening spreads reflect a greater belief that a company may not be able to pay back its debt. So in a sense, Citi was profiting from increased bets that it and other banks were in danger of failing. Those fears may subside a bit following the release of the stress test results.
Perhaps more alarming for Citi -- as well as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), which will report its first-quarter results Monday -- is just how high losses on consumer loans such as credit cards could go later this year.
Citi's North American cards business swung to a $209 million loss in the first quarter, reversing the year-earlier $537 million profit. Credit costs - reflecting loans gone bad and expenses tied to reserving against future losses - nearly doubled.
The surging losses reflect "rising unemployment, higher bankruptcy filings and the housing market downturn," Citi said - national trends that show few signs of slowing any time soon.
Altogether, credit losses on the global cards business rose to 9.49% in the first quarter from 5.39% a year ago.
But consumers also appear to be doing a better job of keeping their cards in their wallets. The company reported an 18% decline in North American credit card purchase sales during the quarter. This drop will add to the pressure on the company's card portfolio.
Those declines were mitigated somewhat, however, by a rise in interest and fee revenue, as already debt-laden consumers ran bigger balances on their cards and made smaller payments.
So no matter how you look at the results, it seems that the taxpayer -- especially those who also happen to be Citi customers -- still have little reason to celebrate with the bank's return to profitability.By Dan Wilchins
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup pulled a rabbit out of a hat in the first quarter -- but can it do it again?
The company managed to turn in a profit this quarter by one measure, its first quarter of positive net income since 2007.
It may be that Citigroup is returning to profitability, but some analysts wonder whether this quarter's performance can be repeated.
Citigroup Inc benefited from a number of one-time items, such as selling its remaining position in Brazilian credit card processor Redecard SAfor $704 million, $250 million of litigation reserve releases and $110 million of tax benefits related to resolving an audit.
Add another $2.5 billion accounting gain from adjusting derivative values as the company's credit quality deteriorated and Citigroup's $1.59 billion net income before preferred share dividends quickly turns into a loss.
Meanwhile, the bank's allowance for loan losses is growing, but not as fast as the company's nonperforming loans, leaving some investors to wonder if the bank is setting aside enough money to cover future losses, known as reserving.
"How sustainable is this profit? How much reserving will they have to do in the future?" said Ralph Cole, portfolio manager at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland, Oregon.
The company's institutional clients group, which includes investment banking, generated $9.5 billion of revenue in the quarter, much of which came from bond trading. JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon cautioned Tuesday that his bank's fixed income trading performance is not likely to continue at the high levels seen in the first quarter.
"I think the first quarter was a historically high quarter," Dimon said, implying that market conditions that benefited banks in the quarter may not be repeated.
And the tremendous government support that helped Citigroup remain profitable, including debt guarantees, $45 billion of capital and insurance on a $300 billion portfolio of troubled assets, will not last forever.
To be sure, there was good news in the Citigroup earnings report. Its securities writedowns have slowed dramatically, signaling its credit pressure in the future will likely come from loans rather than stocks and bonds. Banks have more leeway to record credit losses from loans over time, which can smooth earnings.
Net interest margin, a measure of loan profitability, rose to 3.3 percent in the first quarter, up half a percentage point from the same quarter last year, signaling the lending business is benefiting from low interest rates.
NOT DISAPPOINTING
And nonperforming assets growth is slowing. Between the third quarter and the fourth quarter of last year, these assets grew 56 percent, while between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, that rate was 15 percent. Some consumer credit trends are improving, too.
The conversion of up to $52.5 billion of Citigroup's preferred shares into common will reduce preferred share dividends, which were an eye-popping $1.2 billion in the first quarter, and improve the bank's tangible common equity ratio.
"These results were not disappointing, even if there are still huge headwinds with respect to the credit cycle," said Marshall Front, chairman at Front Barnett Associates, which has been buying Citigroup shares.
Determining how hard those headwinds will blow is the key for Citigroup. The United States is facing the highest unemployment levels in a generation and other economies are suffering as well, which makes determining the magnitude of future losses very difficult.
But analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that Citigroup is trading at around 0.9 times its tangible book value based on common shares after the conversion. Some analysts see that as a fairly high valuation for a company still facing a difficult business environment. JPMorgan is trading at closer to 0.7 times its tangible book value.
Ferguson Wellman's Cole noted that, even if Citigroup continues to be profitable, other banks may be bouncing back faster.
"I feel a lot better about what I've seen other banks accomplish this quarter," Cole said. (Reporting by Dan Wilchins; Editing by Andre Grenon)
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Citigroup surprised Wall Street Friday as the company delivered its first profit in more than a year, helped by strength within its investment banking division.
The company reported net income of $1.6 billion during the first quarter, up from a loss of $5.1 billion a year ago.
Yet, after taking into account the conversion price of a $12.5 billion preferred share offering from January 2008, and $1.22 billion in preferred stock dividend payments to the U.S. government among others, Citigroup reported a loss of $966 million, or 18 cents a share.
Even after including those special items, Citigroup still fared better than many on Wall Street were anticipating. Analysts were forecasting a loss of $1.39 billion, or 34 cents a share.
Since the credit markets began to unravel in late 2007, the company has posted net losses of more than $28 billion. That led the government to take a $45 billion stake in Citigroup in the form of preferred shares and warrants to help stabilize the bank.
Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit said he was "pleased" with the firm's performance this quarter, but those remarks were tempered by a cautious outlook.
"While we and the industry face challenges in the coming quarters as we work through the weak economy, we will remain focused on strengthening the Citi franchise," he said in a statement.
Shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), which have soared in recent weeks along with the rest of the banking sector, were nearly 10% higher in pre-market trading Friday.
The company said it benefited this quarter from expense cuts and a $704 million after-tax gain related to its sale of its stake in Brazilian credit card company Redecard.
But much of the bank's profit was driven by big numbers in its institutional clients group, which houses its investment banking and trading businesses.
After reporting a steep loss just a quarter ago, the division reported net income of $2.8 billion, helped by strong fixed-income trading results.
Nevertheless, Citigroup continued to have problems across a number of its consumer-related loan portfolios as unemployment climbed higher.
Net credit losses in the company's North American credit card division rose 81% from a year ago. The bank's total credit costs were $10.3 billion during the quarter, up 76% from a year ago.
Citi also delivered an update Friday about the government's planned conversion of up to $25 billion in preferred shares to common stock, which was announced in late February in an effort to improve Citi's capital base.
The bank said the proposed exchange would not take place until after the government completes its stress test program of the nation's 19 largest banks, which includes Citigroup. Results of those tests are expected to be released in early May.
Citi's earnings surprise is the latest bit of positive news from large banks. Over the past week, JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) all reported better-than-expected profits during the first three months of the year.
Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) is the next big bank due to report its first quarter results. It is scheduled to release them on Monday.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The latest crop of quarterly numbers from the banking industry has proven promising so far. But with every harvest, there's always bound to be a few rotten apples in the bunch.
This quarter, it's likely to once again be Citigroup.
Analysts predict that the embattled bank will be one of only a few major financial institutions to record a net loss this quarter. Citigroup is scheduled to deliver its first-quarter results before Friday's opening bell.
According to current consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters, Wall Street is forecasting a loss of $1.39 billion, or 34 cents a share.
If Citigroup does post a loss, it would be the sixth consecutive quarter of red ink. The New York City-based bank has lost more than $28 billion since the credit markets began to unravel in late 2007.
But shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), which briefly traded below $1 a share in early March, have soared in recent weeks along with the rest of the banking sector. The stock was trading at about $3.80 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Part of the rise can be attributed to relatively impressive results across the rest of the industry. Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) blew past Wall Street estimates when it reported a profit of $1.8 billion earlier this week. Last week, Wells Fargo said it anticipated a profit of $3 billion this quarter, much more than expected.
Citigroup has also signaled to Wall Street that its own fortunes may be improving. Last month, Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit wrote in an internal memo to the company's staff that the bank was profitable during the first two months of 2009.
A modest improvement in capital markets activity, a surge in mortgage refinancings and a massive gap between the rates at which banks borrow money and make loans should be a huge boon for banks like Citigroup and rivals such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).
So why are expectations on Wall Street for the bank to report a loss? For one thing, analysts remain concerned about Citigroup's ongoing exposure to home equity, credit cards and other consumer-related loans, which continue to deteriorate as the recession drags on and more people find themselves out of work.
"[Loan] losses will be up across the board given the mixture of a slowing economy, rising unemployment and real estate continuing to devalue," said Barclays Capital analyst Jason Goldberg.
Citigroup's decision to bulk up its reserves for future loan losses to the tune of $6 billion proved devastating last quarter. The company recorded an overall net loss of $8.3 billion.
But some worry that Citigroup may not be as aggressive enough this time around. By scaling back on the money set aside for bad loans, Citi's results would appear a bit rosier, but it could leave the company ill-prepared to cope with future loan losses.
David Trone of Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia warned clients last week that he expected provisions this quarter to shrink to about $4 billion, while charge-offs, or loans a company doesn't believe are collectable, will climb to $7 billion.
Any upbeat numbers issued by Citigroup would help to sustain growing investor speculation that the worst may be over for the bank.
Market experts said the bank's stock may also be getting a lift because the bank could soon give more details about issuing new shares as part of the government's planned conversion of part of its investment in Citigroup to common stock.
In late February, the government said it would convert up to $25 billion of preferred shares to common stock in an effort to improve the company's capital base.
So far, the government has injected approximately $45 billion into Citigroup, making it one of the biggest recipients of government assistance during the recession. Once the conversion of the preferred shares ais complete, the government could own as much as 36% of Citigroup's common stock.
Yet, there are concerns that Citigroup could need even more aid. The Treasury Department is expected to publish the results of its so-called "stress test" of the nation's 19 largest banks once those lenders have finished reporting their first-quarter results. Citigroup is one of the banks undergoing the stress tests.
Mike McKeon, senior partner and head of the financial services practice of consultancy Booz & Company, said he did not expect regulators to give specific details about Citigroup or any bank being tested for that matter. Instead, the government is likely to give some broad industry observations based on the results of the tests.
But David Hendler, an analyst with CreditSights, told clients in a report this week that Citigroup's string of crushing losses could end sooner than many anticipate, given that the bank now has other options for improving its financial health.
Banks' funding sources have improved significantly since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. established its debt guarantee program last year, which backstops losses a borrower may suffer if a bank can't pay back its debt.
In addition, the Treasury's soon-to-be-launched "toxic asset" plan will allow banks to sell soured loans and securities to private investors partnering with the government.
"The smorgasbord of government initiatives aimed at assisting the banking sector could help improve the company's liquidity and earnings," Hendler wrote.NEW YORK (Fortune) -- This week is Masters golf time, a fact that takes me back precisely 11 years ago to an afternoon when I walked the grounds of the Augusta National course with Sandy Weill as he basked in the glory of the just-announced Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) merger deal between his company, Travelers Group, and Citicorp.
Weill, an Augusta member, was there for the golf and various events orchestrated by Travelers (then a Masters sponsor). Getting my first on-the-ground exposure to the famous tournament, I savored the golf as well. But my real purpose for being there was to report a major FORTUNE article that we published 10 days later, A Helluva Candy Store. In it, I described Weill as having happily experienced "the most electric week in his life."
Well, as the world knows, that electricity got grounded. No banking company is today more worrisome, to more regulators, than Citigroup.
Still, Citi -- too big and interconnected to fail and pumped up by government money -- survives. So I was therefore especially startled when a FORTUNE subscriber pointed out to me that Citi is conspicuous on a list of "Failures and Assistance Transactions" that is posted, quite obscurely, on a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. website. The data goes back to the panic year of 1934, the first year of the FDIC's operation.
In the more recent panic year of 2008, the FDIC handled 25 true failures. They ranged from tiny Hume Bank, of Hume, Mo., with its $14 million in deposits, to the very large Washington Mutual Bank, with $188 billion. (Wamu, of course, was taken over by JPMorgan Chase).
But in the midst of these failures are five items of "assistance," listed together. They are all Citigroup banks: Department Stores National Bank (deposits: $301 million); Banamex USA ($876 million); Citicorp Trust Bank FSB ($7.2 billion); Citibank (South Dakota) N.A. ($42 billion); and one of the largest holders of deposits in the nation, Citibank National Association ($230 billion).
How did Citigroup's banks get on this list? Because on Nov. 23, the U.S. government, by way of the Treasury and the FDIC -- and the Federal Reserve, as an ultimate backstop -- stepped in to guarantee up to $306 billion of Citi's assets. The FDIC's maximum exposure, which qualifies as its "assistance," is $10 billion.
Technically, the FDIC aid amounted to what it calls "open-bank assistance," and an absolute rarity this is. Before Citi rudely inserted itself into this picture, the last instance of such assistance was in 1992, when a small bank in Princeton, Texas, was propped up by the FDIC because it was judged vital to its community.
But neither competitors nor Congress liked open-bank assistance, wondering why the institutions getting it shouldn't just be allowed to fail. So a 1991 banking law called FDICIA, and a subsequent amendment to a related law, essentially barred the FDIC from granting such assistance -- except in instances of systemic risk.
And even then, the procedures set up by the law for determining that systemic risk truly existed were extraordinary. The law says that before assistance can be granted two-thirds of the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve must first recommend the step and that the Secretary of the Treasury, before making a final determination, must confer with the President.
So did Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson make a trip to the Oval Office last November, or even make a phone call, to consult with President Bush and say that FDIC assistance -- and much more -- must be granted Citi? Or did the exigencies of the financial crisis sweep aside procedure?
We may know a precise answer to those questions when Hank Paulson completes the book that he is known to be feverishly writing. For now, what we know is that the second-largest banking company in the nation, Citigroup -- founded 11 years by an exuberant Weill -- will forever have its banks tabulated on the FDIC's list of "Failures and Assistance." By Morgan Housel
March 10, 2009 | Comments (43)
Markets exploded today because of a memo from Citigroup (NYSE: C) CEO Vikram Pandit, telling employees that -- surprise! -- the bank was actually on track to post its best quarter in over a year ... and a profit! Maybe things aren't as bad as we thought! We're saved! We're saved! Whoo-hoo!
Not so fast
You can't blame the market's reaction. Since Feb. 6, the Dow Jones has risen all of five times. Even relatively healthy banks like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) are being treated like basket cases. Anything that can be slightly spun as good news is bound to be clinged to. Just give us any good news -- even if it's not, you know, true -- and the market will run with it.
This is no exception. Citigroup's announcement that "Hey, hey, we're actually profitable!" is twisted, tortured, and largely irrelevant to its ultimate fate.
The gist of Pandit's memo was that operating profit was going gangbusters -- as if operating profit has been the problem all along. The problem is not a bank's ability to generate current income, but its ability to absorb losses on legacy assets that are worth a fraction of their purchase price -- using absurd amounts of leverage to boot.
The memo disclosed numbers that point to an operating profit of about $8.3 billion this quarter, but Pandit didn't give any mention of what asset writedowns would be. "In January and February alone, our revenues excluding externally disclosed marks were $19 billion," he said. Great! Now... uh... about those "externally disclosed marks?" How are those workin' out for you?
I'm not worried that Citigroup can't generate operating profit: I'm worried it's not solvent. There's a big difference. Imagine a person drowning in debt but insisting they're wealthy because their paycheck exceeded their grocery bills. You get the idea.
Same game, different day
You can't blame bank CEOs for trying to instill confidence these days. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) tried a similar approach a few weeks ago, telling investors that Countrywide and Merrill Lynch were the "stars" of 2009, and that Merrill Lynch will be "a thing of beauty," pointing to, you guessed it, operating profits.
It doesn't take a tremendous amount of thought to see that if a company has an operating profit of X and losses on existing assets of X times 100, things might not turn out so hot. Such is the case with Merrill Lynch, whose losses in 2007 and 2008 wiped out all profits earned over the preceding eleven years, and ultimately caused B of A to become the recipient of one of the largest federal bailouts ever. "A thing of beauty" indeed.
Posting the occasional operating profit will indeed provide a cushion for banks to absorb impending writedowns, but it's a clown show to think it'll be enough to plug the black hole of losses, especially in Citigroup's case.
Link: http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/03/10/dont-fall-for-citigroups-fantasy.aspx
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Citigroup unveiled plans Thursday to pursue a reverse stock split, and the company officially gave notice of its previously announced plans to convert the government's massive preferred share stake into common stock.
The New York City-based bank said it would authorize its board of directors to carry out the reverse split, but it requires a shareholder vote before it can take effect.
The move would help reduce the number of shares outstanding for Citi, which are expected to swell after the Treasury Department completes its conversion of part of its $45 billion stake in the company. The bank currently has a total of 5.5 billion shares outstanding.
Shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), initially surged on the news, climbing nearly 23% in Thursday morning trading. But the stock lost ground as the day wore on and wound up finishing Thursday down nearly 16%.
Late last month, the government said it would convert up to $25 billion of preferred shares, matching dollars that Citigroup is able to bring in from other investors. Approximately $52.5 billion in preferred stock will be converted as part of the agreement. This could leave the government with as much as a 36% stake in the bank.
Regulators announced the move to help boost Citi's tangible common equity, a closely watched measure of a bank's ability to absorb losses. The agreement is expected to increase it from the fourth-quarter level of $29.7 billion to as much as $81 billion.
The reverse stock split would also bolster Citi's lagging stock price, which fell below $1 earlier this month and closed on Wednesday at $3.08.
Many large investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, tend to shun stocks trading below $5 a share. Some are even prohibited from investing in stocks trading below that level.
When a company completes a reverse split, it lowers the number of total shares outstanding and the stock price rises as a result. But the value of the company is unchanged.
For example, if a company has 100 million shares outstanding and a stock price of $5 and decides to split its shares at a 1 for 5 ratio, it would then have 20 million shares that trade at a price of $25.
In a regulatory filing, Citi proposed seven different possible ratios that it could use to split the stock.
Bad bets on the U.S. housing market and a deteriorating global economy has made Citigroup one of the hardest hit companies in the ongoing financial crisis.
The government has had to step in three times to help prop up Citigroup, but has stopped short of seizing complete control of, or nationalizing, the company.
Citi is not the first financial institution that has gotten extensive government aid to consider a reverse stock split. Mortgage buyer Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), which was seized by the government last fall, announced in late November that it may undertake a reverse stock split in order to lift its ailing stock price.
Citigroup shares, which are off sharply from where they were just a year ago, have gained 63% over the past two weeks as investor fears about the underlying health of the firm have subsided.There's good and bad on this spilt in my opinion. Good thing is, Citi will have a very clear company goal on what they want to achieve, reason being the core concentration is in CitiCorp, with core businesses like credit cards, wealth management, the corporate bank and the investment bank.
Bad news is, whoever lands in Citi Holdings, you are more or less prepared to be sold off or laid off. When you separate your non important businesses away, more likely you won't want to keep it as it is more of an expense than a profit making unit. Especially during such bad times, such expenses should be kept as low as possible.
Another article on Citi:
<http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/18/news/companies/anyone_run_citigroup.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009011616>
In the first step of an expected overhaul of Citigroup by Vikram Pandit, the bruised bank agreed to sell 51% of Smith Barney to John Mack's Morgan Stanley.
<http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/13/news/companies/citigroup/index.htm?postversion=2009011319>
In a nutshell, we could probably see more of Citi's breakout of its various units if it is still unable to turn itself out within the year. Share prices isn't reflecting well on the bank and in my opinion, the CEO hasn't really done much for the past 1 year plus since he took over and investors is still isn't convinced that the bank can survive its universal business model with high capital ratio and government support.
My take, if the Smith Barney unit isn't good, why will Morgan Stanley buy it? In such bad times, only good things get sold and for a discounted price. This simply doesn't benefit Citi in any way and one must take note of how the media actually wrote that it benefits both parties. It only benefits Citi because Citi needs the capital, and not making a good deal out of this. I wonder if Citi sells of its Card unit and Consumer banking unit, will it still be considered as a bank?
One good thing that I can think of which is coming out of this de-leveraging for Citi is they will have a very clear company goal after all the selling. The old Citi has literally everything, ranging from consumer banking, brokerage, investment, commerical banking, insurance, global wealth management and many more! Your business model can have alot, but what is the core of your business? I guess investors couldn't see this and thus the share price tumbling. Morever, I think there are shortists at work on this counter too, resulting in heavy fall.