Golden Trading and Investing Strategies: Tiktok

Showing posts with label Tiktok. Show all posts

Hang Seng Tech Index closing 2.51% lower

Courtesy of AAStocks

After 5 days of positive gains, HSTI has close negative for today, at -2.51%.

Today's biggest winner is BYD where it went up by an impressive +5.016% when HSI and HSTI was really hammered primarily due to the news on US banning US transactions with TikTok and WeChat in 45 days time. Meituan also did a reversal for today, within its low at 208, it managed to close positive at 222.40, with an intraday gain of +6.92%!

With the headlines flashing WeChat and TikTok, we would have thought that Tencent would be the biggest loser for today. Tencent did at one point in time, dropped 10% and breaking the 500 mark, touching 499.4 before rebounding back up after lunch hour. Today's biggest loser is actually SMIC where it closed -8.702%.

Referring to my previous post, I believe the overselling in Tencent would create an opportunity for one to enter as the WeChat population in US is not that big and the US officials came out and say that it is only for WeChat and not its gaming channels. Though the risk of the gaming channels may be the next target by the US government, there are some potential swing in price action for Tencent for the next few trading days. What would China do in this hostile situation?

Top gainers

Top losers

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: Trump Inks Order to Ban US Firms' Deal with Bytedance, Tencent

TikTok: Beneath Its Fun Exterior Lies A Sinister Purpose

The US Government has announced last night on the ban on transactions of US companies with TikTok's parent ByteDance and WeChat's parent TENCENT that will be effective in 45 days.

This will likely push ByteDance to hasten the sales of their US operations as if they do not move ahead with this move, they may land up in a situation where they are not even allowed to operate anymore if the US government bans the use of TikTok.

Source: AAStocks

Tencent President Cashes In $131 Million of Shares as Price Surges - Caixin Global

In the case of WeChat, it seems that WeChat does not hold a very big market base in US based on the website, statista.com. Based on the stats as of September 2019, the number of active users are only around 1.48 million although the total number of users may be higher than this. As I am unable to find any statistics for 2020, assume with a higher penetration percentage of 20%, that will indicate a total number of active users of around 1.8 million. I would think that the impact on WeChat may not be significant to Tencent but more on disruption of services from the existing users in US.

However, the other impact for Tencent which is not yet known is on the mobile gaming side of things. I believe this plays a big part in Tencent's growth and if the US government continues to take this anti China approach, gaming sector from Tencent may be hurted badly as a result.

Statistic: Most popular mobile messaging apps in the United States as of September 2019, by monthly active users (in millions) | Statista

Find more statistics at Statista

News Flash: ByteDance: To Reset TikTok HQ at Ex-US Overseas Mkt

In a statement issued midnight, ByteDance disclosed a plan to reset TikTok headquarter at an overseas market outside the U.S. in order to better serve global users.

The Chinese tech company is seeking to move TikTok headquarter to London, which has been granted a green light from British officials, the Sun reported.

Source: AAStocks

While their plan to move from China to UK was meant to better serve global users, it is really to avoid the US-China tensions that is primarily hurting the Chinese companies. This might help to aid in the Microsoft acquisition with TikTok moving to a more neutral country but it won't be as fast as 15 September so likely Microsoft could squeeze a better deal out from this.

Market Notes for 3 Aug (US Markets)

It was a decent move last night in the US markets with all the major indices moving up:

Dow: +0.89%

S&P 500: +0.72%

Nasdaq: +1.47%

Russell 2000: +1.78%

When Nasdaq and Russell leads, it is often a good indicator that the trend is still holding up. Nasdaq was really held up by the mega tech names, Apple (+2.52%), Microsoft (+5.62%), Telsa (+3.79%) and Nvidia (+3.73%).

With the hottest news on Microsoft looking to acquire TikTok US operations and in a few other countries, Microsoft made a good +5.62% move overnight with almost 79 million shares traded and likely would see more price action in the coming weeks leading to September 15 where this is the deadline imposed by the US government. If this does not go through, it is very likely that the share prices are going to take a hit.

Volume: it is higher than the norm from the charts (almost 79 million shares traded). Last traded with volume closest to this was on 23 July with around 67.45 million shares traded.

Fibonacci: if it stays above 213.83, it is likely testing the next level of 220.77.

Moving Average: it is now above its 20MA after 7 days being under it, will need to see if it continues to hold above its 20MA. Overall trend is still up.

Weekly chart still shows extended steep uptrend, some consolidation took place since 06 July so will need to see if it is sufficient for it to move to the next level. Take note that it is close to its all time high at 217.64 so may form a double top pattern.

Microsoft Daily

Microsoft Weekly

*I currently hold Microsoft shares.

News Flash: Microsoft has until Sept. 15 to resolve a lot of thorny questions if it wants to buy TikTok

Microsoft must create a technological solution to keep TikTok running as one application in conjunction with ByteDance that meets U.S. government approval.

Microsoft said it was open to outside U.S. investment on a deal. Could it look to large media companies for minority stakes?

Microsoft and the U.S. government have agreed to a six-week time frame to wrap up deal discussions around buying TikTok’s U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand operations.

Source: CNBC

Microsoft looking to buy TikTok

Interesting piece of news going into the weekend where Microsoft is looking to buy TikTok operations in US while on the other hand, US president is looking to ban TikTok in US on the basis of personal information theft.

Strategically, this doesn’t make a lot of sense for Microsoft, which has been steadfastly focused on enterprise software under Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella and has seen its market valuation balloon to more than $1.5 trillion because of it.

But Microsoft should absolutely try to acquire TikTok. Any company with the means to do it should.

Christopher Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Source: CNBC

Key Lessons

Rule number one: Don’t lose money. Rule number two: Don’t forget rule number one.
It is not about how the stock prices open but more importantly how it closes for the day and week.
When people are greedy, its time to be fearful. When people are fearful, its time to be greedy.
The trend is your friend till the end.
Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.
When the semiconductors fail, you better bail.