The last trading day will be tomorrow, and probably a half day trading again before entering the new year.
As of now, YEN/USD is 112.68-112.72 - 0.42, which took a plunge after the incident in Pakistan. This is quite a drop, as I posted only near to a week before, it was trading around in the range of 114.
Nothing much to say of the market, as 2007 is going to end soon. If you follow the videos from inthemoneystocks.com, he mentioned about the credit issues with the people, where they are unable to pay up their credit card bills. This is 1 issue which may be relatively serious, as this implies that the US citizens are actually suffering from money delusions?
Next, our dear GIC and Temasek Holdings have finally done some investments in some of the largest investment banks in the world, and this was like a golden chance in like, once in a blue moon? Merrill Lynch, one of my favourite investment banks, and my dream place to work in, suffered quite a fair bit from the subprime issue and it is like out of more than 20 years, before they suffered such a big loss. With our cash rich Temasek Holdings pumping around 16billion (if I remember correctly) into Merrill Lynch, they almost became the largest shareholders! Like what I said, ML is a very strong bank with very strong analysts and fundamentals in terms of investments and equities, and probably this is 1 of the good choices that Temasek Holdings made.
That's probably about all, with low volume trading these few days, I don't really expect the marekt to be too volatile unless big news happen again. During low volumes, it favours the upside too.
27th Dec 2007
Here is the latest news which may affect the world:
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in the wake of a suicide bombing that killed at least 14 of her supporters, doctors, a spokesman for her party and other officials said. Bhutto is helped from her vehicle following the October 18 suicide attack on her motorcade. 1 of 2 Bhutto suffered bullet wounds in the aftermath of the bomb attack, TV networks were reporting. Police warned citizens to stay home as they expected rioting to break out in city streets as a shocked Pakistan absorbed the news of Bhutto's assassination. Video of the scene just moments before the explosion showed Bhutto stepping into a heavily-guarded vehicle to leave the rally. Bhutto was rushed to Rawalpindi General Hospital -- less than two miles from the bombing scene -- where doctors pronounced her dead. Watch aftermath of the attack. » Former Pakistan government spokesman Tariq Azim Khan said while it appeared Bhutto was shot, it was unclear if the bullet wounds to her head and neck were caused by a shooting or if it was shrapnel from the bomb. Watch Benazir Bhutto obituary. » The bomber detonated as he tried to enter the rally where thousands of people gathered to hear Bhutto speak, police said. Read about Bhutto's turbulent history. The number of wounded was not immediately known. However, video of the scene showed ambulances lined up to take many to hospitals.
Unexpected as it is, one of Parkistan's politicans has been a target of terrorism and US futures were affected and stocks opened lower due to this. Such unexpected events would always trigger some confusion in the markets due to uncertaintity and I can expect some form of volatility in the markets. My take is the market might be volatile for the next few days, at least till monday or wednesday after new year itself.
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in the wake of a suicide bombing that killed at least 14 of her supporters, doctors, a spokesman for her party and other officials said. Bhutto is helped from her vehicle following the October 18 suicide attack on her motorcade. 1 of 2 Bhutto suffered bullet wounds in the aftermath of the bomb attack, TV networks were reporting. Police warned citizens to stay home as they expected rioting to break out in city streets as a shocked Pakistan absorbed the news of Bhutto's assassination. Video of the scene just moments before the explosion showed Bhutto stepping into a heavily-guarded vehicle to leave the rally. Bhutto was rushed to Rawalpindi General Hospital -- less than two miles from the bombing scene -- where doctors pronounced her dead. Watch aftermath of the attack. » Former Pakistan government spokesman Tariq Azim Khan said while it appeared Bhutto was shot, it was unclear if the bullet wounds to her head and neck were caused by a shooting or if it was shrapnel from the bomb. Watch Benazir Bhutto obituary. » The bomber detonated as he tried to enter the rally where thousands of people gathered to hear Bhutto speak, police said. Read about Bhutto's turbulent history. The number of wounded was not immediately known. However, video of the scene showed ambulances lined up to take many to hospitals.
Unexpected as it is, one of Parkistan's politicans has been a target of terrorism and US futures were affected and stocks opened lower due to this. Such unexpected events would always trigger some confusion in the markets due to uncertaintity and I can expect some form of volatility in the markets. My take is the market might be volatile for the next few days, at least till monday or wednesday after new year itself.
24th Dec 2007
First of all, merry christmas! :)
I have not been posting for quite a few days as I was down with flu and fever, and didn't really monitor much on the stock markets. However, some key things that I normally check are as follows:
YEN/USD currently at 114.12-114.16 + 0.99, which is getting better each week. Once it resumes its normal 116 range, I can probably say that it's going to be a relatively strong USD rally.
Next, as of this timing, SGD seems to be weakening against some of the currencies:
Currency Rate
USD vs. SGD 1.4548
EUR vs. SGD 2.0930
SGD vs. MYR 2.2961
SGD vs. THB 20.8620
Looking at some of my posts a few weeks back, SGD was around $1.44 against USD. As for the LIBOR rates, this is one of the websites I found:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/ratewatch/other-indices.asp
Looking at this:
1 Month LIBOR Rate 4.95 4.78 5.35
3 Month LIBOR Rate 4.93 5.00 5.37
6 Month LIBOR Rate 4.83 4.86 5.37
As of now as compared to one of the forummer who contributed this useful information:
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:11 pm
1-Month Libor 5.03 4.65 5.80 5.32 5.35
3-Month Libor 4.99 4.87 5.69 5.36 5.36
It seems to be showing a fall and it is showing the positive effects from the fed rate cuts.
Next, will we see a better 2008 as compared to 2007? My broker had sent me quite a few reports from various investment banks and most of them noted a much more volatile year as compared to 2007. Let's see what happened in 2007. Especially in August, when the subprime issue came out. Ultimately, put it in a simplier way to look at things, it was more towards the credit issues with people unable to pay up the morgage loans, and it was indirectly due to the rise of interest rates within that short span of period. However, the property is still physically there! What has been lost in between are the bonds and CDOs that were created by many investment banks and sold to many other banks with high interest rate yields. If you compare to 911 or SARS, it doesn't really match up to a global epidemic, but a problem caused by the banks themselves.
Does this credit crunch make people poorer? Well, it's hard to say as it goes both ways. Why do I say that? Firstly, probably people who default the payments are really broke and unable to pay up, and since it covers a majority in the US, probably it affects their consumption power as well, which indirectly affects most other retail or large businesses, which may in turn lead to a drop in sales and profit and ultimately, as what they always say, leading to a recession.
Stagflation is something that they really will do their best to avoid, as US will be having their elections next year. Alot of carrots will be thrown out and as I mentioned earlier in my previous post, the market will not let itself fall normally on special occasions.
The other thing about this is, since this subprime is only in the US, which means you will ask, so why is Asia and Europe affected? Well, remembering the point where the banks bought the CDOs to make a very high interest yield, and seriously, I believe unless you stay in the US itself to understand its local market, you would definitely not know what's going on there through hear-say. Well, even you are there, it may not help too! Look at Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, which suffered quite substaintially from this credit crunch. But the best thing is, even suffering a loss, their year end bonus does not decrease and in fact, it raised close to a 14% which was reported on news last week or so! I never indicate that the loss was a big one, because it depends on each individual to really determine what's big or small. Well, to me, a few million is a very big loss, but maybe to the bank itself, a loss of a few billion is nothing! That's the reason why when the news came out, it may be overhyping the issue with the figures and causing panic in my opinion. This is a form of psychology and it's probably useful to know some to enter the market.
Lastly, oil prices is the 3rd thing I look at. Now currently trading at the range of $90+, what significant impact does this have? If you monitor the US markets as well as other markets, most of the commodities stocks have risen quite a fair bit. Simple way to know this, look at your basic necessitites and the food you eat, you will know roughly whether there's an increase. With oil trading at that price, there's alot of question marks for this. Where do we go from here? As far as I can see, 1 thing is for sure, if oil prices really drop below $80 or what, it is a high chance that recession may kick in. Oil prices will generally move with the trend of the growth of the economy. Just like any other commodities, it will just become more and more expensive because we are more advanced in our society. If they have to jack down commodities or oil prices, which you can see in the SARS period, it was a economy slowdown instead. Now, everyone is complaining that oil prices are expensive and getting overpriced, but sooner or later, people will just get used to that price and carry on with life. Simple as that. A simple fact is you can't replace oil that easily at this point of time and you got to use it.
Ok, these are some of my thoughts for the issue and I will wait for the rest of the year end reports to come out and time to enjoy the holidays too! :)
I have not been posting for quite a few days as I was down with flu and fever, and didn't really monitor much on the stock markets. However, some key things that I normally check are as follows:
YEN/USD currently at 114.12-114.16 + 0.99, which is getting better each week. Once it resumes its normal 116 range, I can probably say that it's going to be a relatively strong USD rally.
Next, as of this timing, SGD seems to be weakening against some of the currencies:
Currency Rate
USD vs. SGD 1.4548
EUR vs. SGD 2.0930
SGD vs. MYR 2.2961
SGD vs. THB 20.8620
Looking at some of my posts a few weeks back, SGD was around $1.44 against USD. As for the LIBOR rates, this is one of the websites I found:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/ratewatch/other-indices.asp
Looking at this:
1 Month LIBOR Rate 4.95 4.78 5.35
3 Month LIBOR Rate 4.93 5.00 5.37
6 Month LIBOR Rate 4.83 4.86 5.37
As of now as compared to one of the forummer who contributed this useful information:
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:11 pm
1-Month Libor 5.03 4.65 5.80 5.32 5.35
3-Month Libor 4.99 4.87 5.69 5.36 5.36
It seems to be showing a fall and it is showing the positive effects from the fed rate cuts.
Next, will we see a better 2008 as compared to 2007? My broker had sent me quite a few reports from various investment banks and most of them noted a much more volatile year as compared to 2007. Let's see what happened in 2007. Especially in August, when the subprime issue came out. Ultimately, put it in a simplier way to look at things, it was more towards the credit issues with people unable to pay up the morgage loans, and it was indirectly due to the rise of interest rates within that short span of period. However, the property is still physically there! What has been lost in between are the bonds and CDOs that were created by many investment banks and sold to many other banks with high interest rate yields. If you compare to 911 or SARS, it doesn't really match up to a global epidemic, but a problem caused by the banks themselves.
Does this credit crunch make people poorer? Well, it's hard to say as it goes both ways. Why do I say that? Firstly, probably people who default the payments are really broke and unable to pay up, and since it covers a majority in the US, probably it affects their consumption power as well, which indirectly affects most other retail or large businesses, which may in turn lead to a drop in sales and profit and ultimately, as what they always say, leading to a recession.
Stagflation is something that they really will do their best to avoid, as US will be having their elections next year. Alot of carrots will be thrown out and as I mentioned earlier in my previous post, the market will not let itself fall normally on special occasions.
The other thing about this is, since this subprime is only in the US, which means you will ask, so why is Asia and Europe affected? Well, remembering the point where the banks bought the CDOs to make a very high interest yield, and seriously, I believe unless you stay in the US itself to understand its local market, you would definitely not know what's going on there through hear-say. Well, even you are there, it may not help too! Look at Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, which suffered quite substaintially from this credit crunch. But the best thing is, even suffering a loss, their year end bonus does not decrease and in fact, it raised close to a 14% which was reported on news last week or so! I never indicate that the loss was a big one, because it depends on each individual to really determine what's big or small. Well, to me, a few million is a very big loss, but maybe to the bank itself, a loss of a few billion is nothing! That's the reason why when the news came out, it may be overhyping the issue with the figures and causing panic in my opinion. This is a form of psychology and it's probably useful to know some to enter the market.
Lastly, oil prices is the 3rd thing I look at. Now currently trading at the range of $90+, what significant impact does this have? If you monitor the US markets as well as other markets, most of the commodities stocks have risen quite a fair bit. Simple way to know this, look at your basic necessitites and the food you eat, you will know roughly whether there's an increase. With oil trading at that price, there's alot of question marks for this. Where do we go from here? As far as I can see, 1 thing is for sure, if oil prices really drop below $80 or what, it is a high chance that recession may kick in. Oil prices will generally move with the trend of the growth of the economy. Just like any other commodities, it will just become more and more expensive because we are more advanced in our society. If they have to jack down commodities or oil prices, which you can see in the SARS period, it was a economy slowdown instead. Now, everyone is complaining that oil prices are expensive and getting overpriced, but sooner or later, people will just get used to that price and carry on with life. Simple as that. A simple fact is you can't replace oil that easily at this point of time and you got to use it.
Ok, these are some of my thoughts for the issue and I will wait for the rest of the year end reports to come out and time to enjoy the holidays too! :)
17th Dec 2007
The markets have closed for the day, and its another bloodbath today in the STI. Most of the other markets closed with more than a 2% drop, while STI dropped a total of 102.54 points (2.96%). HSI has been showing weakness for the past 1 week, dropping a total of about 3500 points ever since it touched the 30,000 mark.
As for my holdings in Celestial, a mistake was made during my trading. As I mentioned earlier, when it touched the $1.24 mark, which was right at the 20MA, if it didn't managed to close above that the next day, I should have cleared out. This was one of the resistance point in determining its movement. As shown, it didn't managed to close above that and it started downtrend all the way, and today's closing is at $1.02, which is already out of the money for me. However, I have no intentions of selling it to cut loss or whatsoever, as there are some other factors to consider.
Firstly, what constituted to this selling down to this counter? There wasn't any bad news at all relating to the company, with the only news of UBS lowering their holdings to less than 5%.
Next, there isn't any negative news towards the general business of the company (soya beans or biofuel), and these few days of selling was due to the bad market sentiment. The only china related news was about the banks increasing its reserve ratio rate, which probably triggered this selling across the board.
Today's support level was at $1.01, where there was heavy buying when it was at $1.01. I worry about this resistance, as it may not be able to withstand even more selling if it really does occur tomorrow.
Some basic background for the company:
*Manufactures and retails protein powders, canned protein beverages, soybean milk powders, high protein biscuits for the consumer market sold as “Sun Moon Star”……in 29 provinces and over 150 cities in the PRC through major local supermarket chains and international chains such as Carrefour… protein powder is sold as a health product...touted to have 20% more protein than others due to R&D….used as substitute for those with lactose intolerance…
*Produces and wholesales…..soy protein isolate, soy functional protein, biochemical feedstuff are targeted at industrial users. *The Soybean Zone Phase 1 development has been completed and operations commenced in June 2006. The new Soybean Zone facility has boosted Celestial's capacity from 53,000 tonnes to 213,500 tonnes per annum… In 2006 only 30% capacity was utilized… expected to increase to 70% in 2007…
*Bio-diesel plant to start by 4Q07…..Soybean oil…is a by product which they sold off as cooking oil but in Sept 2006… …. they have started building a biodiesel plant… equipment installation starts in May 2007. And by 4Q 07…. the soybean oil a by-product will be used as inputs for the bio-diesel plant. The Group’s soybean oil production can supply up to 50% of the bio-diesel plant’s input needs.
The last one was something that is very interesting. Bio-diesel is something that is out of their company's main focus, and this form of alternate energy may prove to be worthwhile, especially when it is using the by product from the soya bean.
Lastly, I will check the PE and EPS for Celestial, and I believe it should be below its current value and more potential for growth. As quoted from one of the forumers, he stated a PE of less than 10 for 2007. I was also talking about the call warrant which was related to Celestial as well, which is going to be due in 3rd March 2008. As the issuer, I will be wondering, it is going to be due in 3 months time, and looking at how things go, will anyone actually buy the warrant? Take note that the strike price for this warrant is at $1.80, and the ratio is 1 share : 2 warrants. But the other issue is it is dependent on who is the issuer itself too.
Finally, as far as I know, the management of Celestial is still quite good in terms of its growth but the only thing to worry is on the input prices (the cost of soya beans). As shown in the global markets, commodities are rising rapidly and this will increase the cost of production. This is the 1 factor that I worry about. But looking at the other signs, the probability of this counter reviving is much higher.
Currently, YEN/USD at 113.14-113.17 + 0.78, which is rising slowly as compared to last week. I'm still unable to find a website that talks about the LIBOR rate in general and I find that this may be quite interesting to know as it is one of another key factor to whether the feds are doing the right thing with the rate cut.
As for my holdings in Celestial, a mistake was made during my trading. As I mentioned earlier, when it touched the $1.24 mark, which was right at the 20MA, if it didn't managed to close above that the next day, I should have cleared out. This was one of the resistance point in determining its movement. As shown, it didn't managed to close above that and it started downtrend all the way, and today's closing is at $1.02, which is already out of the money for me. However, I have no intentions of selling it to cut loss or whatsoever, as there are some other factors to consider.
Firstly, what constituted to this selling down to this counter? There wasn't any bad news at all relating to the company, with the only news of UBS lowering their holdings to less than 5%.
Next, there isn't any negative news towards the general business of the company (soya beans or biofuel), and these few days of selling was due to the bad market sentiment. The only china related news was about the banks increasing its reserve ratio rate, which probably triggered this selling across the board.
Today's support level was at $1.01, where there was heavy buying when it was at $1.01. I worry about this resistance, as it may not be able to withstand even more selling if it really does occur tomorrow.
Some basic background for the company:
*Manufactures and retails protein powders, canned protein beverages, soybean milk powders, high protein biscuits for the consumer market sold as “Sun Moon Star”……in 29 provinces and over 150 cities in the PRC through major local supermarket chains and international chains such as Carrefour… protein powder is sold as a health product...touted to have 20% more protein than others due to R&D….used as substitute for those with lactose intolerance…
*Produces and wholesales…..soy protein isolate, soy functional protein, biochemical feedstuff are targeted at industrial users. *The Soybean Zone Phase 1 development has been completed and operations commenced in June 2006. The new Soybean Zone facility has boosted Celestial's capacity from 53,000 tonnes to 213,500 tonnes per annum… In 2006 only 30% capacity was utilized… expected to increase to 70% in 2007…
*Bio-diesel plant to start by 4Q07…..Soybean oil…is a by product which they sold off as cooking oil but in Sept 2006… …. they have started building a biodiesel plant… equipment installation starts in May 2007. And by 4Q 07…. the soybean oil a by-product will be used as inputs for the bio-diesel plant. The Group’s soybean oil production can supply up to 50% of the bio-diesel plant’s input needs.
The last one was something that is very interesting. Bio-diesel is something that is out of their company's main focus, and this form of alternate energy may prove to be worthwhile, especially when it is using the by product from the soya bean.
Lastly, I will check the PE and EPS for Celestial, and I believe it should be below its current value and more potential for growth. As quoted from one of the forumers, he stated a PE of less than 10 for 2007. I was also talking about the call warrant which was related to Celestial as well, which is going to be due in 3rd March 2008. As the issuer, I will be wondering, it is going to be due in 3 months time, and looking at how things go, will anyone actually buy the warrant? Take note that the strike price for this warrant is at $1.80, and the ratio is 1 share : 2 warrants. But the other issue is it is dependent on who is the issuer itself too.
Finally, as far as I know, the management of Celestial is still quite good in terms of its growth but the only thing to worry is on the input prices (the cost of soya beans). As shown in the global markets, commodities are rising rapidly and this will increase the cost of production. This is the 1 factor that I worry about. But looking at the other signs, the probability of this counter reviving is much higher.
Currently, YEN/USD at 113.14-113.17 + 0.78, which is rising slowly as compared to last week. I'm still unable to find a website that talks about the LIBOR rate in general and I find that this may be quite interesting to know as it is one of another key factor to whether the feds are doing the right thing with the rate cut.
14th Dec 2007
The market seems to be hit quite badly these few days, especially in HSI and nikkei. In STI, most of the stocks are suffering the after-effects of the fed rate cut and heavy selling for the past 2 days. My holdings for Celestial has eroded and now in a negative paper loss, but I won't be clearing it out, since I missed the chance to clear out at the 10% mark. The 2nd reason is that I have much more confidence in this counter than the rest of my holdings in terms of the company, business etc. My next move is to wait for another chance to enter Celestial once it starts consolidating again. The resistance level at this point is at $1.06, which concides with the previous low during the August fall, and the next one is at $1.01. Also, I found out that there is one call warrant for Celestial which is due in March 2008, with the strike price of $1.80. I will post my thoughts on this later.
In fact, most of my watchlists are way below its trading value and I have cleared both my IPO positions of KTL and Soon Lian. As I mentioned earlier, the interest in Soon Lian wasn't that great, thus when it was opened yesterday, trading was only between $0.215 - $0.230. I cleared my position at $0.220 and today, there was no volume to speak of for it.
As for KTL, the company deals with offshore marine and drilling industries, and provide them with the equipments generally. This counter was more interesting than Soon Lian, and when it opened today, it went to a high of $0.360 and trading between $0.320 - $0.340. I cleared my position at $0.335 and probably see how the general market sentiment goes to determine whether it is worthwhile to enter this company again.
YEN/USD currently at 112.38-112.40 + 0.86, which is still below par, but better than last month. Oil prices has retracted back slightly to $92.25, but it is still quite overpriced, as it rosed due to the fed cut news a few days ago and trading at this price, we might see oil prices hitting $100 again.
Next, this is one quite useful information I got from the forums, which talks about the LIBOR rate with some direct impact from the fed rate cuts. This is the explaination of what is the LIBOR rate from bankrate.com:
LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate. It's the rate of interest at which banks offer to lend money to one another in the wholesale money markets in London. It is a standard financial index used in U.S. capital markets and can be found in the Wall Street Journal. In general, its changes have been smaller than changes in the prime rate.
How it's used: It's an index that is used to set the cost of various variable-rate loans. Lenders use such an index, which varies, to adjust interest rates as economic conditions change. They then add a certain number of percentage points called a margin, which doesn't vary, to the index to establish the interest rate you must pay. When this index goes up, interest rates on any loans tied to it also go up. Although it is increasingly used for consumer loans, it has traditionally been a reference figure for corporate financial transactions.
I will find out more on this, and this can be another indicator of the general market too.
In fact, most of my watchlists are way below its trading value and I have cleared both my IPO positions of KTL and Soon Lian. As I mentioned earlier, the interest in Soon Lian wasn't that great, thus when it was opened yesterday, trading was only between $0.215 - $0.230. I cleared my position at $0.220 and today, there was no volume to speak of for it.
As for KTL, the company deals with offshore marine and drilling industries, and provide them with the equipments generally. This counter was more interesting than Soon Lian, and when it opened today, it went to a high of $0.360 and trading between $0.320 - $0.340. I cleared my position at $0.335 and probably see how the general market sentiment goes to determine whether it is worthwhile to enter this company again.
YEN/USD currently at 112.38-112.40 + 0.86, which is still below par, but better than last month. Oil prices has retracted back slightly to $92.25, but it is still quite overpriced, as it rosed due to the fed cut news a few days ago and trading at this price, we might see oil prices hitting $100 again.
Next, this is one quite useful information I got from the forums, which talks about the LIBOR rate with some direct impact from the fed rate cuts. This is the explaination of what is the LIBOR rate from bankrate.com:
LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate. It's the rate of interest at which banks offer to lend money to one another in the wholesale money markets in London. It is a standard financial index used in U.S. capital markets and can be found in the Wall Street Journal. In general, its changes have been smaller than changes in the prime rate.
How it's used: It's an index that is used to set the cost of various variable-rate loans. Lenders use such an index, which varies, to adjust interest rates as economic conditions change. They then add a certain number of percentage points called a margin, which doesn't vary, to the index to establish the interest rate you must pay. When this index goes up, interest rates on any loans tied to it also go up. Although it is increasingly used for consumer loans, it has traditionally been a reference figure for corporate financial transactions.
I will find out more on this, and this can be another indicator of the general market too.
12th Dec 2007
As you can see after the 0.25 rate cut and 0.25 discount cut, US markets plunged into a night of madness. When the asian markets opened in the morning, it suffered the effect too. As far as it is concerned, I'm personally not too worried about this. Why is it so? The market was already anticipating the rate cut today, and whether it was only 0.25 or 0.5 or more. The market was rallying for a few days, which I think had considered the 0.25 percent already, and it was hyping up even more for the 0.5 percent cut! This drop after the fed released the news is just heavy overselling and I was talking to my broker with regards to this and he told me probably next week is a good chance to enter as markets will be much more stablised with possible chances of the fed cuts in the new year itself.
As of now, YEN/USD is at 112.05-112.07 + 0.20, which is trending upwards, in my opinion is very good. However, oil has risen back to its $90USD/barrel. It's time to invest in those oversold fundemental stocks, and my next stock in list is FJBen, which deals in luxury goods. I will provide more information for this counter.
Tomorrow, Soon lian will be available in the open market and I will try to sell it out if the market bolds well tonight for US markets. In my opinion, I'm not really interested in these kind of companies, as it is a very common company that deals with alluminum alloy and looking into the future growth, I don't really see much of a investment. KTL will be opened on the 14th and I will see how its potential goes.
As of now, YEN/USD is at 112.05-112.07 + 0.20, which is trending upwards, in my opinion is very good. However, oil has risen back to its $90USD/barrel. It's time to invest in those oversold fundemental stocks, and my next stock in list is FJBen, which deals in luxury goods. I will provide more information for this counter.
Tomorrow, Soon lian will be available in the open market and I will try to sell it out if the market bolds well tonight for US markets. In my opinion, I'm not really interested in these kind of companies, as it is a very common company that deals with alluminum alloy and looking into the future growth, I don't really see much of a investment. KTL will be opened on the 14th and I will see how its potential goes.
10th Dec 2007
As I was talking about Celestial last week, I realised there was 1 news that was leaked on friday, which resulted in the fall in most of the china stocks. It was on China which is going to increase the bank reserve ratio of 1 more percent and this triggered the heavy selling on china stocks in STI and affected HSI as well.
As quoted:
Bank reserve ratio raised by 1% (Xinhua/chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2007-12-08 16:30
China will raise the reserve requirement ratio by one percentage point for commercial banks in an effort to cool the booming economy, the central bank announced Saturday. The move, which will take effect on December 25, will push the ratio to a new high of 14.5 percent, after it reached a ten-year high of 13.5 percent on November 26. The central bank statement said the ratio hike is meant to echo to the tight monetary policy for the coming year, adopted at the three-day economic work conference that ended in Beijing on Wednesday. The tight monetary policy was a shift from "prudent" policy, an approach it has followed for the last ten years. This is the country's tenth time to raise the reserve requirement ratio this year, which aimed at "strengthening liquidity management in the banking system and checking excessive credit growth", the People's Bank of China said in a statement posted on its Web site. It is the first time China has raised the reserve requirement ratio by as much as one percentage point since September, 2003. The other nine rises this year were half a percentage point each. It means that a tighter monetary policy has been adopted, said Song Guoqing, Professor of the Peking University. The move, launched at the end of the year, is also to prevent a boom in credit, which usually rebounds at the beginning of a year, he said. China's economy is in its fifth straight year of double-digit growth, reaching 11.5 percent in the third quarter this year.
Even the signs are clear to buy, unfortunately, I missed out this news and the market reacted to this news negatively. However, From this year, this occurred quite a few times already and investors should understand that this overselling will be over soon and undervalued companies will probably bounce back again.
Other information:
Currently, YEN/USD at 111.67-111.73 + 0.45, which is looking good as compared to last week.
As quoted:
Bank reserve ratio raised by 1% (Xinhua/chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2007-12-08 16:30
China will raise the reserve requirement ratio by one percentage point for commercial banks in an effort to cool the booming economy, the central bank announced Saturday. The move, which will take effect on December 25, will push the ratio to a new high of 14.5 percent, after it reached a ten-year high of 13.5 percent on November 26. The central bank statement said the ratio hike is meant to echo to the tight monetary policy for the coming year, adopted at the three-day economic work conference that ended in Beijing on Wednesday. The tight monetary policy was a shift from "prudent" policy, an approach it has followed for the last ten years. This is the country's tenth time to raise the reserve requirement ratio this year, which aimed at "strengthening liquidity management in the banking system and checking excessive credit growth", the People's Bank of China said in a statement posted on its Web site. It is the first time China has raised the reserve requirement ratio by as much as one percentage point since September, 2003. The other nine rises this year were half a percentage point each. It means that a tighter monetary policy has been adopted, said Song Guoqing, Professor of the Peking University. The move, launched at the end of the year, is also to prevent a boom in credit, which usually rebounds at the beginning of a year, he said. China's economy is in its fifth straight year of double-digit growth, reaching 11.5 percent in the third quarter this year.
Even the signs are clear to buy, unfortunately, I missed out this news and the market reacted to this news negatively. However, From this year, this occurred quite a few times already and investors should understand that this overselling will be over soon and undervalued companies will probably bounce back again.
Other information:
Currently, YEN/USD at 111.67-111.73 + 0.45, which is looking good as compared to last week.
7th Dec 2007
Just a quick post for today, the US markets took a quick move up again and all are anticipating for the rate cut news coming next week. Tonight, there will be some jobs figures release and in my opinion, it would probably not affect the market that much unless the figures are too unexpected.
As I mentioned earlier on Celestial, it seems that it was unable to break past and close above the 20MA which was at $1.24, which in turns, it closed at $1.20 yesterday. Looking at the charts today, all the indicators, including RSI, MACD and stochastics are showing an uptrend and the current resistance point is at $1.20. For the past 2-3 days again, STI has been showing a tremendous move up again, with all the various blue chips pushing the index. As blue chips are in play, penny stocks and the others will not have much of a movement. However, there is 1 thing to take note, is that I have read in the forums that one of the financial institutes are selling the stocks. I have no idea how they got this news, and I will try to gather more information with regards to this. My take on Celestial is still quite good, taking on the impression as well, with alot of China stocks in play in the US as well. From the charts, it can be seen that it moved down from its high of $1.75 to its current price of $1.21, with no bad news or whatsoever! One thing to take note is the market sentiment, which overbuy or oversell the counter. In my opinion, I feel that Celestial has been oversold and it is just waiting for the market to realise it and it should move back to its $1.40-$1.50 range. Taking the opening price in the 1st day of 2007 at $1.52, I'm not surprised it should close near to this price for the end of the year.
Some other information, YEN/USD is at 111.33-111.36 + 0.44, which is showing a slight uptrend rebound.
As I mentioned earlier on Celestial, it seems that it was unable to break past and close above the 20MA which was at $1.24, which in turns, it closed at $1.20 yesterday. Looking at the charts today, all the indicators, including RSI, MACD and stochastics are showing an uptrend and the current resistance point is at $1.20. For the past 2-3 days again, STI has been showing a tremendous move up again, with all the various blue chips pushing the index. As blue chips are in play, penny stocks and the others will not have much of a movement. However, there is 1 thing to take note, is that I have read in the forums that one of the financial institutes are selling the stocks. I have no idea how they got this news, and I will try to gather more information with regards to this. My take on Celestial is still quite good, taking on the impression as well, with alot of China stocks in play in the US as well. From the charts, it can be seen that it moved down from its high of $1.75 to its current price of $1.21, with no bad news or whatsoever! One thing to take note is the market sentiment, which overbuy or oversell the counter. In my opinion, I feel that Celestial has been oversold and it is just waiting for the market to realise it and it should move back to its $1.40-$1.50 range. Taking the opening price in the 1st day of 2007 at $1.52, I'm not surprised it should close near to this price for the end of the year.
Some other information, YEN/USD is at 111.33-111.36 + 0.44, which is showing a slight uptrend rebound.
Celestial 05th Dec 2007
Here is today's daily chart for celestial:
Looking at the various indicators, it is showing a slightly upward trend, and MACD is showing a reversal as well. Looking at dow's performance tonight, tomorrow will probably be another day of penny movement. From the charts, the closing was at $1.24 which hit right at the 20MA. If all goes well, it will probably open above the 20MA tomorrow and the next resistance as far as I can see is at $1.30.
Looking at the various indicators, it is showing a slightly upward trend, and MACD is showing a reversal as well. Looking at dow's performance tonight, tomorrow will probably be another day of penny movement. From the charts, the closing was at $1.24 which hit right at the 20MA. If all goes well, it will probably open above the 20MA tomorrow and the next resistance as far as I can see is at $1.30.
05th Dec 2007
Too busy these few weeks with work, thus unable to post any thoughts on the market. However, I have already opened a few positions in the market since yesterday till today. 2 new IPO placements and I have entered Celestial at $1.19 in the morning already.
When I saw the markets in the morning, the top volume plays were all penny stocks! After so many days of blue chip rally, I was waiting for this moment to come. Celestial didn't have much of a volume for a start which was lucky, and I didn't bother too much of the entry price, as long as I buy it below $1.20. Some other signs which I took note was the fall in oil prices, which signifies well, china stocks in play in the US markets recently (remember the previous play it had after the fed cuts), and the end of the blue chip rally today. I was emphasizing as well for a few times, that most of the signs for Celestial already indicated the buy, RSI, MACD, Stochastics, and 1 more to take note is the channel it has been for the past few days. It has been consolidating for quite a while and I have shown in the chart on its channel. Today it broke out of the channel and I will need to see the fibonacci line and see the next resistance level.
You probably will ask, why I didn't enter at $1.14 or $1.16 which was a much better price. As I mentioned, the most important factor was the market sentiment, and during that time, it was rather mixed sentiments and it took quite a while before the blue chip rally began! That was the 1st sign for me to take note. However, I am still wary as due to the YEN/USD trade which is not improving at 110.36-110.37 + 0.12. The FOMC meeting next week is very interesting, which is going to announce whether there is a rate cut or not. As far as the market is concerned in my opinion, everyone is expecting a rate cut. The only problem is how much? It is going to be very interesting to see the market trend to move upwards or downwards.
I will post the chart for Celestial tomorrow and expect more uptrend for penny stocks, and china stocks too!
When I saw the markets in the morning, the top volume plays were all penny stocks! After so many days of blue chip rally, I was waiting for this moment to come. Celestial didn't have much of a volume for a start which was lucky, and I didn't bother too much of the entry price, as long as I buy it below $1.20. Some other signs which I took note was the fall in oil prices, which signifies well, china stocks in play in the US markets recently (remember the previous play it had after the fed cuts), and the end of the blue chip rally today. I was emphasizing as well for a few times, that most of the signs for Celestial already indicated the buy, RSI, MACD, Stochastics, and 1 more to take note is the channel it has been for the past few days. It has been consolidating for quite a while and I have shown in the chart on its channel. Today it broke out of the channel and I will need to see the fibonacci line and see the next resistance level.
You probably will ask, why I didn't enter at $1.14 or $1.16 which was a much better price. As I mentioned, the most important factor was the market sentiment, and during that time, it was rather mixed sentiments and it took quite a while before the blue chip rally began! That was the 1st sign for me to take note. However, I am still wary as due to the YEN/USD trade which is not improving at 110.36-110.37 + 0.12. The FOMC meeting next week is very interesting, which is going to announce whether there is a rate cut or not. As far as the market is concerned in my opinion, everyone is expecting a rate cut. The only problem is how much? It is going to be very interesting to see the market trend to move upwards or downwards.
I will post the chart for Celestial tomorrow and expect more uptrend for penny stocks, and china stocks too!
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