Tencent 2Q Net Proft Grows 37%, Online Game Revenue rises 40%

Tencent on Wednesday reported results for the three months through to the end of June that beat analyst expectations in one of the fastest revenue-growing quarters in two years.

Gaming boosted overall revenue while Tencent saw some weakness in its advertising business. 

Revenue: 114.88 billion yuan ($16.53 billion) vs 112.72 billion yuan expected. That’s a 29% year-on-year rise, the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2018.

Profit attributable to equity holders of the company: 33.1 billion yuan vs 27.56 billion yuan expected. That’s a 37% year-on-year rise.

Source: CNBC

Mirroring the US tech stocks, Tencent has posted revenue that has beaten analyst's expectations for their Q2 results and particularly important during the pandemic period. Forward looking, it is expected that it will likely continue to perform well in its gaming area but one key concern to take note is the US China tension as the US government may continue to target Chinese companies and Tencent is likely going to be one of those companies. 

Looking at the price performance of Tencent today after its earning announcement, it opened higher at 528 but it seems that it has retracted during lunch hour. If positive news does not boost the price, bad news would likely push it even lower and we will need to continue to monitor for the next few days/weeks. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index closing 1.67% lower

Hang Seng Tech Index is now down 3 days in a row, today closing at -1.67% lower. At one point in time, the index was as low as 6,833.88 with all the constituent stocks in the red. If you noticed once it crossed through 7,000, the rebound is pretty fast and started its consolidation before making an up move. 

It seems like 7,000 is the support level at this point in time and should hold when it touches or pierce through this level.  

Courtesy of AAStocks

Looking at the gainers for today, Sunny Optical and Tencent popped a gain of more than 1% and at one point in time, both were negative and close to its moving average (20MA for Sunny and 50MA for Tencent) before rebounding higher. Tencent will be announcing their results today and we will see if it will help push the prices higher for the rest of the week and at the same time, whether there are any geo political tension between China and US to negate any good news. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

Losers for today are primarily Hua Hong and China Lit where they have dropped -10.843% and -9.486% respectively. At one point in time, Hua Hong was down close to 17% before closing at 29.60. The losers however are small cap companies as you can see as compared to the top 5 gainers so we will need to monitor closely how the big cap companies will try to hold up the index. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Is the Gold and Silver run over?

It's been a while but yesterday's move during US market hours saw the massive sell down for Gold and Silver where Gold Futures is currently trading at 1923.70 and Silver Futures at 25.28. The current news on why precious metals has taken a hit was due to the vaccine that Russia has indicated and resulting in equities being more favorable than safe havens. It is important to monitor the price action for the next few days/weeks as we may see more downward action for precious metals considering its parabolic move to the upside over the past 2 weeks. 

Looking at GLD chart, it has dropped a good -5.37% overnight and close below its 20MA for the first time after many days. It may look to correct even further if more positive news on the vaccine continues to be published. First level of support may be at 173.74 at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. There was sideways accumulation at around 168.25 and it may be another level, though the period is not that long (6-7 trading days). 

GLD Daily

Silver really took a beatnig last night, plunging -13.59% in a single day. Its first breakout point was at 22.62 (the long green bar on 4 Aug) and we will need to see the price action today to determine if it will close above that price level. If this continues to close below, we are looking at the next level at 21.54 which is a gap fill. 

SLV Daily

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Where are we now in the Business Cycle?

Amidst all the doom and gloom from the various news media on COVID-19 and the impact on Q2 GDP from each region and the increasing number of job losses, what does it mean for all of us? 

As shared in my previous post, GDP for Q2 were totally decimated and likely so as most of the major developed countries went through a national lock down and most businesses were unable to operate in such a mode since March to May. It was also noted that almost $11 billion in GDP was lost during the lock down. 

The diagram above shows a typical business cycle where we see growth, stabilization, decline, recession and slump, recovery and growth again. As news media normally does not analyze or perform forward looking views, we are normally looking at historical data/information that they will present. In this case we were all looking at Q2 GDP numbers and recent earning reports from major US companies for Q2. Even for job losses and retrenchments, these are backward looking information as well. If one uses the news media as the basis, we would think that we are at the start of the recession cycle. 

Frankly I was unable to find more data points to determine exactly where we are at, but based on the weekly job claims which shows a smaller number on a weekly basis, we would see that it should be at the lower end of the recession than the higher end as job losses should intensify at the start of the cycle and not at the end of the cycle. Looking at this Bloomberg article posted in July, we see a large number of businesses closing down and again, this is historical information and not real time information as we do not have the information on how many businesses are closing down at this point in time and how many businesses are potentially created as well. 

Source: Bloomberg

With countries opening up and businesses starting to resume, this should mean we are close to the bottom or start of the recovery. One condition that may result in the start of the recession trend would likely be another lock down which will likely resume in business closure of existing companies as lock down only benefits certain companies like Amazon but not the broader mom and pop shops. The Stock market is normally a barometer of the future and thus we are seeing a broader up move despite all the doom and gloom in the news media. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

US Market notes on Energy on 11 August

As per my previous post on 28 July, Financials and Energy sector has been the area I have noticed to be a laggard and would have a higher probability of a upward move.

Energy ETF (XLE) is holding its uptrend on a daily chart movement even though Energy stocks as a whole didn't perform well in the closing hours. Large energy companies like Exxon, Chervon was up more than 2% during the day before it gave way slightly with Exxon still holding up its gain at +1.03% and Chervon down by -0.12%. 

XLE Daily

Again, Nasdaq was down with all the big Tech names dropping almost more than 2% like Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia but Financials again took a good gain today. This is showing a broadening sign across the markets which is good in the long run. It may also pose some opportunities to look at accumulating some of the tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft during this distribution period. My personal preference would be Apple but it would be a different entry at this current price and also considering that it is due for a stock split by end of the month. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index closing -0.65% lower

Hang Seng Tech Index closed lower for two days in a row, today at -0.65% lower. It was positive during the start of the day before it started to sell down about 1 hour into its opening and ended lower after lunch hour. 

Top gainers for today are Leveno and Fit Hon Teng which both are up more than 4% today. Tencent also staged a recovery today, reversing its downtrend with a close of +2.291%. It was at a high of 526 early today before it started to retract back to a low of 510 and eventually closing slightly higher at 513.50. Take note that Tencent will be reporting its earnings on 12 August and will see if good news can push its price higher. 

Top losers for today are Koolearn where it fell -7.343%. Overall there are more losers than winners in the HSTI composite and it did not show too much weakness considering Tencent and Alibaba's gain squared off Meituan and Xiaomi's losses. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

Courtesy of AAStocks

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

US Market Notes on Financials for 10 August

 

As per my previous post on 28 July, Financials and Energy sector has been the area I have noticed to be a laggard and would have a higher probability of a upward move.

If we look at the XLF (Financial ETF), it looks to have been consolidating for a period of time and during that period, big tech stocks have been making major moves. Looking at yesterday's movements, we can see that there is money flowing out from the Tech sector and moving into Energy and Financials. I will cover the Energy sector in a separate post. 

XLF Daily

Notably, Bank of America has been consolidating upwards since 20 July and JP Morgan has been consolidating sideways since 13 July. Looking at Bond yields, it is currently at its all time lows and it might potentially move up as it is considered a flight to safety during the whole US China tension. 

Looking at the daily chart of BAC, it is likely to touch the 200MA at 28 and the last time it did it went tumbling down so we will need to see if it can break out this time. It is technically a gap fill for the big fall in March if you can see from the charts. 

BAC Daily

The chart for JPM is looking pretty ok, with a sideway consolidation over several trading days and we would likely see a move soon if it continues to consolidate at this range. Similar to BAC, there is a gap fill in March and we would likely see resistance when it starts to move up to the 200MA. 

JPM Daily

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Tencent and what's next?

If you have referred to my previous post on the impact to Tencent, Bank of America has also indicated in its assessment today that the impact would be minimal as I have indicated and BofA highlighted that there were about 5.9 million WeChat users in the US who were mostly Chinese immigrants and students, being less than 1% of total WeChat users with low monetization rate. As rationale as we can be, the stock market isn't that rationale and we are likely to see more volatility in the price action for Tencent. 

Source: AAStocks

Volume: Looking at its daily chart, it looks pretty bearish for the past 2 days with selling volume of 62 million and 48 million, 2-3x more of its average volume of 15 million per trading day. The last time we saw such volume is during March where the markets dropped severely and volume on a daily basis back then was 40-60 million on average over 9 trading days. 

Trend: It has breached its 20MA easily on 7 August and continued to close before its 20MA today. However if you noticed, when it nearly touched its 50MA for the 2 trading days, it did show support to not break its 50MA. We will need to monitor if the 50MA can hold and if it does, we would likely see 538 as its first resistance point at the 20MA. If it doesn't, the next level is likely at the 61.8% Fibonacci at 474.26. 

We will need to monitor the geo-political situation between US and China as US is targeting one of the biggest China company and we may expect China to target likely in this case, Apple for whatever reason it can think of to make life difficult. 

My view on this is that as this tit for tat prolongs, it does not really help the current US president in his quest for re-election as the US Business leaders will likely find it extremely difficult to work with their Chinese counterparts and potentially lose out on the Chinese market. The Chinese normally works on relationships and to repair relationships will take years.

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index closing 2.85% lower

Courtesy of AAStocks 

Markets were not kind to the Tech Index today, choppy session throughout the day and closing -2.85% lower withe BYD, SMIC and Tencent leading the fall. As Tencent is the largest constituent stock for HSTI, it did result in the big fall for the index and due to the news that continues to circle around the impact on Tencent with WeChat potentially to be banned in US. 

Gainers for today are only two which is HENGTEN and MEITUAN. Meituan was up more than 1% throughout the day before closing at +0.27%. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index closing 2.51% lower

Courtesy of AAStocks

After 5 days of positive gains, HSTI has close negative for today, at -2.51%. 

Today's biggest winner is BYD where it went up by an impressive +5.016% when HSI and HSTI was really hammered primarily due to the news on US banning US transactions with TikTok and WeChat in 45 days time. Meituan also did a reversal for today, within its low at 208, it managed to close positive at 222.40, with an intraday gain of +6.92%!

With the headlines flashing WeChat and TikTok, we would have thought that Tencent would be the biggest loser for today. Tencent did at one point in time, dropped 10% and breaking the 500 mark, touching 499.4 before rebounding back up after lunch hour. Today's biggest loser is actually SMIC where it closed -8.702%.

Referring to my previous post, I believe the overselling in Tencent would create an opportunity for one to enter as the WeChat population in US is not that big and the US officials came out and say that it is only for WeChat and not its gaming channels. Though the risk of the gaming channels may be the next target by the US government, there are some potential swing in price action for Tencent for the next few trading days. What would China do in this hostile situation? 

Top gainers

Top losers

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: Trump Inks Order to Ban US Firms' Deal with Bytedance, Tencent

The US Government has announced last night on the ban on transactions of US companies with TikTok's parent ByteDance and WeChat's parent TENCENT that will be effective in 45 days. 

This will likely push ByteDance to hasten the sales of their US operations as if they do not move ahead with this move, they may land up in a situation where they are not even allowed to operate anymore if the US government bans the use of TikTok. 

Source: AAStocks

In the case of WeChat, it seems that WeChat does not hold a very big market base in US based on the website, statista.com. Based on the stats as of September 2019, the number of active users are only around 1.48 million although the total number of users may be higher than this. As I am unable to find any statistics for 2020, assume with a higher penetration percentage of 20%, that will indicate a total number of active users of around 1.8 million. I would think that the impact on WeChat may not be significant to Tencent but more on disruption of services from the existing users in US. 

However, the other impact for Tencent which is not yet known is on the mobile gaming side of things. I believe this plays a big part in Tencent's growth and if the US government continues to take this anti China approach, gaming sector from Tencent may be hurted badly as a result. 

 
Find more statistics at Statista  

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index closing 0.39% higher

Courtesy of AAStocks

Hang Seng Tech Index was down almost the entire day before reversing into positive territory towards the end of the trading session. Eventually it close +0.39% higher for the day and with XD INC as its best performer, showing an impressive gain of +11.639% for today. If you noticed, the smaller cap companies are making big moves over the past few days while the large caps are generally either flat or showing gains of 1-2%.  

The latest news from US with regards to banning more apps like WeChat did not help the HSTI stocks with Tencent going as low as 543.50 (-3.11%) during the day before closing at 555.50 (-0.98%). I would expect more volatility to come with the US China technology war and China may start to target US companies in retaliation. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.49%

Courtesy of AAStocks

Up 3 days in a row for this week, the HSTI is maintaining its upward momentum pretty well with Nasdaq in the green last night too. Also to take note for today, the top performer is WEIMOB INC which went up more than 10% and followed by BYD which has an impressive gain of +8.219%.

The bigger constituents for HSTI did a pretty good move today with Tencent up by +2%, Alibaba up by +0.788%, Xiaomi up by +0.516% and Meituan up just a fraction by +0.183% considering it did a big up move just yesterday. 

Only 10 losers for the HSTI for today which again are the smaller constituent stocks apart from Alibaba Health. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Market Notes for 4 Aug (US Markets)

It was a decent move last night in the US markets with all the major indices moving up:

Dow: +0.62%

S&P 500: +0.36%

Nasdaq: +0.35%

Russell 2000: +0.69%

Today Russell leads the markets with some of the mega tech stocks like Google, Microsoft and Facebook taking some hit, however markets still held up ok for now. 

Energy sector was the winner with most of the oil companies making a good gain, and BP despite announcing dividend cuts was the big winner at +7.47%. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: Gold just hit a fresh record high — but some say silver is set to overtake

Silver is set to outshine gold, even as prices of both precious metals soar in the midst of a faltering global economy and a weakening U.S. dollar.

This year, gold prices have shot to record highs not seen since September 2011. Investors have been fleeing to “safe haven” assets as the pandemic shows no signs of abating.

Gold prices hit a new record close of $2,021 per ounce overnight — settling above $2,000 for the first time. It was last trading at $2,020.30. Geopolitical unrest overnight likely added to the spike. The blasts in Beirut, which killed dozens and wounded thousands, “probably (added) to the shine of Gold above $2020,” said a note from Mizuho Bank.

Source: CNBC

Gold and Silver has made big moves overnight again, with Gold Futures trading at $2,032 per ounce and Silver at $25.99. Its move is in anticipation of the Fed's potential actions which the Fed is looking at maintaining 2% inflation. Lots of media attention is now back on Gold and Silver as compared to Tesla which is no longer the talk of the town currently. 

Looking at the GLD monthly chart, we can see that it has now closed above its all time high in 2011 but the charts may look overbought within 2019/2020 but if we look at the consolidation, it looks to have started since 2013 (7 years) before one starts to make a decent gain from Gold. 

GLD monthly

Looking at the SLV monthly chart, it looks like the move started in July to close the month of July with a massive gain of 63.99%! Looking at the broader trend, the highs for SLV was back in 2011 at $48.35 and we will see if Silver will catch up to what Gold is doing which would mean a possible gain of almost close to 50%. 

SLV monthly

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: Chinese state media slams U.S. as a ‘rogue country’ for its planned ‘smash and grab’ of TikTok

China and U.S. flags are seen near a TikTok logo in this illustration picture taken July 16, 2020.

Florence Lo | Reuters

Chinese state media labeled the U.S. a “rogue country” and dubbed the potential sale of social media firm TikTok to Microsoft as “theft,” adding that Beijing could retaliate if a deal is sealed. 

Source: CNBC

As mentioned in my previous post we can see that the Chinese government is likely going to show retaliation with the actions of the US government with Apple possibly as the main target? 

I am not a user of TikTok but I am not sure what type of technology theft Microsoft would gain with TikTok based on the article. I have seen videos of TikTok and its a social network for sharing user-generated videos which to me the most valuable part of it is this network that has been built. 

Technology wise it would be similar to Youtube or what Facebook is offering unless I am wrong? 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Hang Seng Tech Index closing at +1.98% higher

Courtesy of AAStocks

Following last night's positive gain in Nasdaq, HSTI has again closed positive for today with a gain of 144.14 points (+1.98%). 

Looking at the top performers for today, HENGTEN was the big winner with a big up move of +15.546% and following that is MEITUAN at +8.674%. There were 7 stocks that were in the red for today with SMIC dropping -2.556%. The overall sentiment for HSTI still looks positive and we are still waiting to see when the ETF fund will be created. 

Courtesy of AAStocks

While Tencent and Sunny Optical are included in the benchmark Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, Meituan and Xiaomi, are not, which means most ETFs that track the main index are yet to cover these behemoths.

Source: https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3094735/fund-managers-expect-etfs-tracking-hang-seng-tech-index

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: Ant Group Intends to Fetch US$30B in A+H Listing, IPO in Sep Soonest: Report

Ant Group, a subsidiary of BABA-SW (09988.HK) intended to fetch approximately US$30 billion through A+H listing, Caixin reported. 

If the fundraising amount was nailed, Ant Group's IPO will topple Saudi Aramco's US$29.4 billion.

With the listing preparation under brisk processing, Ant Group was expected to begin IPO arrangement in September or October, the report added.

Source: AAStocks

This is currently touted as the largest IPO ever, even exceeding Saudi Aramco that went public on Dec 2019. Its interesting to see as Alibaba has a 33% stake in Ant Financial and apart from Alibaba listed in both NYSE and HKEx, Alibaba also owns Alibaba Health through its subsidiary Ali JK which holds 30.79% of Alibaba Health. 

Behind the scene before Jack Ma retired, we can see that he has multiple businesses across his parent company and has consistently acquired more businesses before he handed the reins over to Daniel Zhang. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: BP reports second-quarter loss after major write downs, halves dividend

A BP company logo at a gas station in London, U.K.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Energy giant BP reported a significant loss for the second quarter on Tuesday, after downgrading the value of some of its assets on expectations of lower commodity prices.

Second-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, came in at a loss of $6.7 billion, meeting expectations of analysts polled by Refinitiv. That compared with net profit of $2.8 million for the same period a year earlier.

BP also announced that it had halved its dividend to 5.25 cents per share for the quarter, compared to 10.5 cents per share for the first three months of the year.

Source: CNBC

As i have shared in my previous posts, apart from EU banks it seems that EU entities are all pressured to cut or halt dividends as losses grow. For the energy sector, it is not expected to see any profits at least till Q3/Q4 since countries are starting to open up since May/June. 

However, this move on BP is not going to be positive as Exxon has also announced their earnings last week and with no intention of cutting their dividends. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Market Notes: Lost Decade in Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)

If you have noticed, I don't really post much of the Singapore companies that are listed in the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX). 

If we compare the charts of STI against HSI and S&P 500, we will notice that STI has been really under water and with this pandemic, it is almost like a lost decade with no real economic move for Singapore blue chips in particular. 

STI performance for past 13 years since GFC (2007 - 2020)

With its peak during 2007 at 3837 and crashing through the floor during 2008-2009, it has never managed to break its highs and its last highest point was at 3624 during May 2018 before starting the downtrend. It is good to note that STI has always been a very sensitive barometer against the global economy as Singapore is always heavy in global trade. 

However in recent years, STI has failed to lure any big Tech firms to be listed in Singapore resulting in the 3 local banks forming a big part of STI.  

HSI performance for the past 13 years since GFC (2007-2020)

Looking at the performance of Hang Seng Index for the past 13 years as well, it exceed its 2007 highs at 31,897 during Jan 2018 at 33,484 before it came tumbling down. You may notice a trend that STI and HSI both started the downtrend in 2018 and it was the year where the trade war started.  

However coming back to the original point, HSI was poised to perform pretty well if not for the trade war and the Hong Kong protest that consumed the city. Now with the new Hang Seng Tech Index in play, we can see that Hong Kong is drawing lots of big Chinese tech companies to list in HSI and also in Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) which they are able to avoid scrutiny from the US government. 

S&P 500 performance for the past 13 years since GFC (2007-2020)

Needless to say, S&P 500 has almost increased up to 400% since its low in Mar 2009. This is fueled by limitless money printing from the Feds since then and markets have never looked back. We will notice that the dip started in Oct 2018 and primarily due to the trade war between US and China, Fed increasing its interest rate since 2009 and also tightening their monetary policies. 

Liquidity has always been the game changer here which is likely the main reason why we did not see a total market collapse in Feb/Mar 2020 when the Fed announced QE again with unlimited printing. 

I will cover more about what makes up the STI and some of the blue chips that people may have invested but would likely be in the red over the past 10 years. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: Apple Shares in China Smartphone Market Fall to 21.6% in 1H20: Survey

The usage of android system made up almost 80% of smartphone market shares in China in 1H20, among which Huawei's expanded 4.7 ppts yearly to 26.3%, according to an observation report of QuestMobile, a surveyor in China.

Meanwhile, Apple's market shares narrowed 1.9 ppts to 21.6%, the report said. OPPO, Vivo and XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) accounted for 19%, 16.6% and 9%.

Source: AAStocks

Apple in recent years has not been the market leader in terms of their phone sales but their accessories like Airpod, Ipad has been doing pretty well. Looking at the product line, iPhones are pretty much stagnant while the other Chinese brands are really pushing as many functions as possible, which leads to Apple now looking to diversify into the software portion like payments, apple TV app etc. 

Judging from what the US government is doing to the Chinese companies, Apple might be the first to face the wrath of the Chinese government with the earlier post on one of the Chinese companies suing Apple on Siri. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: India Mulls Souring Import Scrutiny to Prevent China Imports Shift to India

In order to encourage local products, the Indian government is weighing new measures to prevent trade partners in Southeast Asia from re-routing Chinese imports to India with a low added value, as Reuters learnt from inside sources.

New Delhi intends to heighten quality standards of imports, slam quantity restriction and mount stringent disclosure norms, according to the local officials

Source: AAStocks

In a report titled ‘A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia’, the bank estimates India’s potential trade in goods with South Asia at $62 billion against its actual trade of $19 billion, which is a mere 3% of its global trade and about $43 billion below its potential.

Source: Economics Times

This might not be so good for South East Asia if India starts to implement any forms of restrictions or tariffs. Looking at the current trade numbers, it is likely not to grow too much if anything is implemented and with the COVID-19 situation still not in control globally, it may not help with the economic growth in the region. Also this is specifically targeting Chinese import which might be due to the border tensions as well. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

News Flash: ByteDance: To Reset TikTok HQ at Ex-US Overseas Mkt

In a statement issued midnight, ByteDance disclosed a plan to reset TikTok headquarter at an overseas market outside the U.S. in order to better serve global users.

The Chinese tech company is seeking to move TikTok headquarter to London, which has been granted a green light from British officials, the Sun reported.

Source: AAStocks

While their plan to move from China to UK was meant to better serve global users, it is really to avoid the US-China tensions that is primarily hurting the Chinese companies. This might help to aid in the Microsoft acquisition with TikTok moving to a more neutral country but it won't be as fast as 15 September so likely Microsoft could squeeze a better deal out from this. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!

Market Notes for 3 Aug (US Markets)

It was a decent move last night in the US markets with all the major indices moving up:

Dow: +0.89%

S&P 500: +0.72%

Nasdaq: +1.47%

Russell 2000: +1.78%

When Nasdaq and Russell leads, it is often a good indicator that the trend is still holding up. Nasdaq was really held up by the mega tech names, Apple (+2.52%), Microsoft (+5.62%), Telsa (+3.79%) and Nvidia (+3.73%). 

With the hottest news on Microsoft looking to acquire TikTok US operations and in a few other countries, Microsoft made a good +5.62% move overnight with almost 79 million shares traded and likely would see more price action in the coming weeks leading to September 15 where this is the deadline imposed by the US government. If this does not go through, it is very likely that the share prices are going to take a hit. 

Volume: it is higher than the norm from the charts (almost 79 million shares traded). Last traded with volume closest to this was on 23 July with around 67.45 million shares traded. 

Fibonacci: if it stays above 213.83, it is likely testing the next level of 220.77. 

Moving Average: it is now above its 20MA after 7 days being under it, will need to see if it continues to hold above its 20MA. Overall trend is still up. 

Weekly chart still shows extended steep uptrend, some consolidation took place since 06 July so will need to see if it is sufficient for it to move to the next level. Take note that it is close to its all time high at 217.64 so may form a double top pattern. 

Microsoft Daily

Microsoft Weekly

*I currently hold Microsoft shares. 

Disclaimer: Whatever posted here is purely my personal view. It is not an inducement to trade and not responsible for any losses. Tips and News might just be rumors in the market. I take no responsibility for any gains or losses as a result of reading my analyses, judgement and opinions. Trade with care and diligence please!