Couple stole S$16,000 worth of toiletries

SINGAPORE: They had stolen toiletries to the tune of about S$16,000 from supermarkets all over Singapore in eight months, and had 17 charges against them.

But because Daniel Wong Chee Kian, 38, is a schizophrenic and his wife, 39—year—old Boo Lee Choo, has a mood disorder — according to their Institute of Mental Health reports — the prosecution had already reduced the number of charges against them to one each.

And on Wednesday, they were both given a conditional discharge for stealing with a common intention. The couple’s lawyer had urged the court to grant them a conditional discharge and said they both seemed to be on the road to recovery after going for medical treatment.

Wong had originally faced 10 charges and Boo seven.

On January 21 last year, Wong and Boo went to the Cold Storage supermarket at Parkway Parade, took toiletries off the shelves and placed them in a shopping basket as they walked through the lanes.

A loss prevention officer, Mr Kelvin Po, who was monitoring the store’s CCTV cameras found their behaviour suspicious and went to the lanes to observe them.

He saw Boo taking out items from the shopping basket that Wong was holding and placing them in a red paper bag.

The couple then walked out of the supermarket without paying for the items in the red paper bag. Those were valued at around S$150.

Mr Po approached them but before he was able to introduce himself, Boo tried to escape. She struggled with Mr Po and scratched his hands. Wong ran away during the scuffle.

Boo was eventually detained. Wong was arrested later.

For Stocks, September May Be the Cruelest Month

September is fewer than three weeks away. Feeling nervous? Maybe you should be. For investors, the period between Labor Day and Halloween is proving an annual fright show. And no one knows why.

It was, of course, in September last year that Lehman collapsed and everything fell apart. But then it was also September-October 2002 that the last bear market plunged to its lows.

The 1998 financial crisis? It began late August, and rolled on for two months.

The famous crash of 1987 came in October. But most people have forgotten that the market actually started sliding downhill in late August.

That's almost exactly what happened in 1929 too. The big crash came in October, but the market peaked just after Labor Day. Prices began falling through September, then tumbled further still.

The worst month of the Depression? September, 1931, when the Dow fell about 30 percent.

It was also in September, 2000, that the bear market really got going.

The 9/11 crisis, of course, came in September. That was hardly caused by investors. But what is forgotten is that the stock market was already looking wobbly. In the two weeks before the terrorist attacks, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 7 percent.

The great panic of 1907? October. The great crash of 1873? September.

Yikes.

So is there really a September, or a Halloween, effect?

Since 1926, investors have lost nearly one percent on average during September, according to market data tracked by finance professor Kenneth French at Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business. It's the only month with a negative average return.. For each of the other 11 months, investors gained nearly one percent on average.

Other research takes the idea of an autumn dip even further. Georgia Tech doctoral student Hyung-Suk Choi studied the so-called "September effect" as part of his recent Ph.D. thesis. He looked at data for 18 developed stock markets around the world spanning up to 200 years, and found that in 15 of those markets, September brought red ink for investors.

Fund manager Sven Bouman and finance professor Ben Jacobsen concluded that investors in most world markets have historically fared poorly from May through October each year. They made their money between November and April.

Hence the old British investors' saying, "sell in May and go away, don't come back till St Leger Day." (But since St. Leger Day is in the middle of September, even that date may be premature.)

Some of the September or Halloween effect is caused by a few really bad years. But that's not the whole story. To reduce the influence of outliers I looked instead at the median result since 1926 instead of the statistical mean. The performance gap between September and the other months shrank from 2 percent to 1.4 percent. That's smaller, but it's still a difference. The median September saw losses of just 0.07 percent. But the median month for the rest of the year gained 1.37 percent.

As for the causes of a possible September effect, most are stumped.

"There haven't been any good academic stories to explain it," admits Michael Cooper, finance professor at the University of Utah's David Eccles School of Business. "One credible explanation is just luck."

It's been suggested that mutual funds drive down the market by selling their losing stocks before their October 31 year end. Or that third quarter profit warnings come in early September, raising fears about full-year results. Or that these autumn crashes used to be related to the harvest, as Midwestern banks withdrew capital from New York.

(Still another theory cites seasonal affective disorder. Investors simply get more risk-averse, and more prone to sell, as the days get shorter. That's the case argued by York University finance professor Mark Kamstra and others.

So what, if anything, should you do?

In practical terms, maybe not that much. For most people, even a performance difference of one or two percentage points isn't going to cover the transaction costs of selling before the end of August and re-entering the market a month later. And stock market patterns aren't ironclad. The market may even jump in September, as it did in 2006 and 2007.

Perhaps the best you can do is brace for turmoil.

Morakot Typhoon

It's very sad to hear that this typhoon has caused alot of damage and loss of many lives and properties in Taiwan. From the news itself, alot of villages were destroyed in the process and many accidents happened even during the rescue itself.

Wiki has more information on this natural disaster:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Morakot_(2009)

In fact, Philippines is also affected by this catastrophe and through this disaster, we can see how we as humans, can get together in unity to overcome this nature of destruction. In Taiwan itself, many volunteers from every part of the country did their fair part through donations, volunteered services in the rescue. Many retailers also did their part by donating food and water supplies to the affected areas and factories volunteered to repair electronics of the affected parties with close to no cost. Many other retailers also offered to sell goods at half price for those affected parties...

May god bless the people in Taiwan to overcome this crisis..

US economy has bottomed: George Soros

Tue Aug 11, 2009 3:13pm EDT
By Edward Krudy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy has hit bottom and the current quarter will see positive growth due to the government's stimulus spending, billionaire financier George Soros said on Tuesday.

"I think it (the stimulus) has made a difference, the economy has actually bottomed and I think we are facing a positive quarter, and I think that is largely due to the stimulus," he said in an interview with Reuters Television in New York.

The Obama administration is pumping $787 billion into the economy in a bid to turn around the deepest recession since the 1930s. The U.S. economy shrank by 1 percent in the second quarter after tumbling 6.4 percent in the quarter before that, the biggest decline since 1982.

Soros said he did not believe the economy needed more stimulus money, despite calls for a second round of spending. Notably, in July, House of Representatives Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said the U.S. should be open to more government spending if needed.

Also on Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama sounded a cautious note, saying the economy is "not out of the woods" despite signs lagging business investment was reviving. Last week the White House said there are no plans for a second stimulus package.

Back in June Soros said the United States faces a "stop-go" economy because rising borrowing costs could generate major headwinds for the still-fragile economy. Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management.

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Andrew Hay)

© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved.

A very good opportunity.

Taking a firm position in an ongoing debate in the financial markets, Buffett says he's not concerned about deflation, but thinks inflation will be a problem in coming years.

Despite his negative view on the economy, Buffett still believes the stock market is attractive "over the next 10 years" when compared to alternatives like Treasury bonds.

Buffett endorsed Ben Bernanke's reappointment as Federal Reserve Chairman, saying "you couldn't do better." He also praised Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner.

Frank Naylor, head of investments at Hermes Pension Fund, which manages BT's scheme - the largest in the UK - said investment in distressed debt was a "very good opportunity".

"Even though people are talking about the outlook improving, we still think there will inevitably be a lot of bankruptcies and insolvencies," Mr Naylor said. "We will be able to get quite powerful returns."

Singapore Q2 GDP jumps revised 20.7 percent

SINGAPORE - Singapore revised slightly higher its economic growth in the second quarter, but warned U.S. consumption must pick up to sustain the recovery.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized, seasonally adjusted 20.7 percent in second quarter, the Trade and Industry Ministry said in a statement Tuesday. The ministry last month initially reported a 20.4 percent expansion.

Manufacturing surged 49.5 percent, construction jumped 32.7 percent, and financial services rose 22.8 percent from the previous quarter, the ministry said.

"This improvement was largely driven by the spike in output from the volatile biomedical manufacturing cluster and inventory re-stocking," the ministry said. "Financial services was boosted by sentiment-sensitive segments such as stock market activities."

"It is uncertain if these can be sustained into the second half."

Before the April to June period, the economy contracted the previous four quarters as the global recession undermined demand for Singapore's exports. The government expects the economy to fall up to 6 percent this year.

GDP shrank 3.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, better than the previous estimate of a 3.7 percent contraction, the ministry said.

Non-oil exports, which account for about 60 percent of GDP, rose a seasonally adjusted 7.6 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, while falling 14 percent from a year earlier, the ministry said. The government expects non-oil exports to contract up to 12 percent this year.

An economic recovery in the second half and next year will likely be muted unless U.S. consumer demand grows more than expected, Ravi Menon, deputy trade ministry, said at a news conference.

"The subdued and weak recovery that we see taking place in the second half of this year is likely to continue to next year," he said. "That's not a bad outcome if we continue to avoid financial slippages and double dip recession scenarios."

Jim Rogers Holding China, Buying Commodities

Unless you’re new to investing, chances are you’ve heard of Jim Rogers. Co-founder of the Quantum Fund, he returned a yearly compounded return of 38% over 11 years (source: Streetstories.com).

He has an air of someone who’s seen it all and done it all. As the sprightly 67-year old father of two relaxes in his chair, we start off the interview with his take on the rally.

Rally Skeptic
The world is flush with stimulus money. And Rogers believes some of it has flowed into the stock market. “Nearly every central bank in the world has pumped out and printed huge amounts of money. Most governments around the world have spent huge amounts of money…the money has to go somewhere, and one of these places is into stocks.”

“This is a very strong rally and a very powerful rally…but I do know there are more problems to come down the road,“ says Jim on the rally. He remains skeptical saying, “(governments) can’t keep doing this forever. I’ve seen powerful rallies like this one and they usually last longer than people expect, including me.”

A strong rally doesn’t mean Jim is staying out of the market. He still holds a position in China, although he isn’t adding to it.

Hold China
“Last October and November the China market collapsed…it looked like panic selling. And you should nearly always buy when there’s panic selling,” says Jim on his position in China.

Since then however, he’s been holding, not adding to his China position. “When something doubles in nine months, I don’t like to jump into a moving train. When you see something that strong, normally something causes a correction if nothing else."

Jim intends to hold for a long time; longer than most investors would consider ‘long term’. “I hope I never sell my Chinese shares. I hope my Chinese shares are held by my children someday. If I’m right about China, in that China is the next great country in the world, I want to own these shares for a hundred years.”

This doesn’t mean Jim is blind to the risks, although he remains strongly bullish on China. One issue that could end the China story is the supply of water. “I’ve been around the world a couple of times and I’ve seen whole societies disappear because the water disappeared. If China is unable to solve its water problem, there’s no China story, it’s the end of the story. They’re working on it. They’re spending billions of dollars trying to solve their water problem. And if nothing else, somebody is going to make a lot of money while they try. But we won’t know for several more years.”

While Jim is holding on to China, one other asset he’s bullish on is commodities. And this time, he’s been buying.

Buy Commodities
Jim’s case for commodities seems airtight. “If the world economy is going to get better, in my view commodities will lead the way out because there are shortages developing of all commodities…if the economy is not getting better, you still want to own commodities because people are printing so much money and in a period of shortages the money is going to somewhere and one of the places will be into commodities to protect themselves against declining paper money.”

Another reason for his bullishness on commodities is his belief that the combined efforts of central banks will result in massive inflation. “Prices are already going up and have been going up for many things. Even the US government that lies about inflation, in their most recent inflationary report…they acknowledge that there’ve been price increases. Overall, energy prices are down and down a lot, therefore they say there’s not much inflation. Go shopping; you’ll see prices are going up.”

The commodities story, Jim believes, still has a long way to go. “I’m not good at market timing, but I do know the bull market for commodities still has a long way to go…everything has to go much much much higher.”

So here’s what Jim has been doing: He’s holding China and buying commodities.

Advice To Investors
As the author of A Gift To My Children: A Father’s Lessons For Life And Investing (published by Wiley), Jim believes that money is an important part of a child’s education. “All children need to learn about money. Everybody needs to understand at least the basics of what to do with money, and if you want to do well, you should learn about investing…unless you’re a monk or a poet or a mystic…money’s going to be significant in everybody’s life.”

To investors, Jim offers this piece of advice: Don’t invest into anything unless you know a lot about what you’re doing. “Jumping around, trying to invest in everything in sight has never led to anybody getting rich. The way you get rich is you find something really good, you focus, you concentrate, you put your eggs in that basket. You watch that basket very carefully. That’s how you get rich. You could go broke, but that’s how you get rich.”

2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Citigroup?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 135,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, banking behemoth Citigroup (NYSE: C) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Citigroup's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Citigroup facts

Headquarters (founded)	New York, N.Y. (1812)
Market Cap	$43.6 billion
Industry	Financial Services
TTM Revenue	$34.69 billion
Management	CEO Vikram Pandit President William McNamee
TTM Return on Equity	(12.7%)
5-Month Return	267%
Competitors	Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)
CAPS members bearish on C also bearish on	JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Ford Motor (NYSE: F)
CAPS members bullish on C also bullish on	General Electric (NYSE: GE) Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)

Sources: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's, and Motley Fool CAPS. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over on CAPS, fully 1,698 of the 8,338 members who have rated Citigroup -- some 20% -- believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include bankerman13 and EmmaBem.

Last month, bankerman13 tapped Citigroup as a zombie that needs to be slayed:

This bank is running on government batteries. It won't show a profit for several years to amount to anything. ... Another GM and it keeps all the other banks from showing the improvement they deserve. Break it up. It's worth more that way than being a socialistic run bank.

In a more recent pitch, EmmaBem singled out the stock as a relatively unattractive banking option:

I really want to like Citi, it is so cheap and with the performance of the other banks, I have to think Citi will become a profitable giant once again. But then, I say to myself, why gamble on Citi when you can invest in Bank of America or Wells Fargo, both are still cheap and promise much less government intervention and much more profit. Citi may end up above $5 by the end of the year, but, for my money, [Bank of America] or [Wells Fargo] are a safer and equally profitable investment.

What do you think about Citigroup, or any other stock for that matter?

On the docket

Monday: There are no market-moving economic reports scheduled for Monday.

Tuesday: The Labor Department releases the initial reading on second-quarter productivity in the morning. Business productivity is expected to have gained 4.9% after rising 1.6% in the previous month, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists. Unit labor costs are expected to have fallen 1.9% in the quarter after rising 3% in the first quarter.

The June wholesale inventories report from the Commerce Department, due in the morning, is expected to show a decline for the 10th month in a row, dropping 0.9% after falling 0.8% in May.

The Fed meeting gets underway in the morning, concluding Tuesday.

After the close, Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) releases results. The chipmaker is expected to report a loss of 8 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters. Applied Materials earned 15 cents a year ago.

Wednesday: Due in the morning, the June trade gap, from the Commerce Department, is expected to have widened to $28.5 billion from $26 billion in May, a 10-year low.

The weekly oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is due in the morning and the July Treasury budget is due in the afternoon.

The Fed decision is due at around 2:15 p.m. ET.

Thursday: July retail sales, released by the Commerce Department, are expected to show modest growth. Sales likely rose 0.3% after rising 0.6% in June. Sales excluding volatile autos are expected to have written 0.1% after rising 0.3% in June.

The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department is also due in the morning, along with readings on July import and export prices and June business inventories.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) releases its quarterly results before the start of trade. The Dow component is expected to have earned 86 cents per share, just as it did a year ago.

Friday: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to come in unchanged, as inflationary pressure remains benign. CPI rose 0.7% in June. The so-called Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2% after rising 0.2% in June. The Labor Department releases the report.

After the start of trading, the University of Michigan releases its initial reading on consumer sentiment in August. The index is expected to have risen to 68.5 from 66 in late July.

Readings on July industrial production and capacity utilization are also due.

Berkshire profit up 14 percent as stocks rebound

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc posted its best quarter in nearly two years, as recovering stock markets boosted the value of its equity investments and derivatives bets.

Operating earnings for the second quarter nevertheless fell short of forecasts, reflecting lower underwriting gains, including from the Geico Corp auto insurance unit, and the impact of the recession on Berkshire's more economically sensitive manufacturing and service units.

"Warren hasn't been able to defy the laws of gravity," said Thomas Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, which invests more than $3 billion and owns Berkshire shares. "Berkshire's operating companies are not trying to compromise their long-term results. They are taking the hits that come with an economic contraction."

Net income for Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire rose 14 percent to $3.3 billion, or $2,123 per Class A share, from $2.88 billion, or $1,859, a year earlier. Earnings had previously fallen for six straight quarters.

Excluding investments, operating profit fell 22 percent to $1.78 billion, or $1,147 per share, from $2.27 billion, or $1,465. On that basis, analysts expected profit of $1,238 per share, according to Reuters Estimates. Revenue fell 2 percent to $29.61 billion.

Berkshire has close to 80 operating units that provide such products as insurance, carpeting, electricity and natural gas, ice cream, paint and underwear.

Results included $1.53 billion of derivatives gains. These were tied mainly to the performance of four market indexes in the United States, Europe and Japan, which rose between 8 percent and 23 percent in the quarter.

The derivatives are a major reason earnings had fallen in recent quarters. Accounting rules require Berkshire to report changes in their value with earnings. Berkshire said the bets will continue to generate "extreme volatility" in earnings.

Book value increased 11 percent from the first quarter and on a per-share basis rose to $73,806 from $66,248. Net income was the highest since the third quarter of 2007 and came on the heels of a first-quarter loss, Berkshire's first quarterly deficit since 2001, Reuters data show.

EQUITY HOLDINGS REBOUND

Berkshire's common stock holdings increased 22 percent from the first quarter to $45.79 billion, reflecting price changes as well the purchase of $350 million of stock.

The company is the largest shareholder of American Express Co and Wells Fargo & Co, whose shares rose a respective 71 percent and 70 percent in the quarter.

Berkshire also ended June with $30.37 billion of "other" investments, including in Dow Chemical Co, General Electric Co, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Swiss Re and Wm Wrigley Jr Co.

Buffett has become something of a white-knight investor in the financial crisis. Berkshire ended June with $24.51 billion in cash, down from $25.55 billion at the end of March.

"The magnitude of the investments he has been able to make is because of his past discipline, and his credibility," Russo said. "He had to weather a lot of criticism for not making the easy and early bets, but waiting for the big fat pitch."

Berkshire did sell some stock, and said its sales of oil company ConocoPhillips shares continued in July.

While Berkshire on June 30 had $8.23 billion of paper losses on the stock index derivatives, that was down from $10.19 billion at the end of March.

Berkshire said it modified six of the derivative contracts during the quarter, reducing potential losses.

These derivative contracts now mature between 2018 and 2028, and Buffett has said he expects them to be profitable.

Meanwhile, liabilities on contracts tied to the default rates on junk bonds fell to $2.51 billion from $3.67 billion. Buffett has said these contracts may lose money.

INSURANCE UNDERWRITING, MANUFACTURING WEAKEN

While insurance investment income rose 31 percent to $1.16 billion, underwriting profit fell 77 percent to $83 million.

Berkshire said the decline came in part because customers of Geico had higher claims losses, and the weak economy caused them to raise deductibles and reduce coverage to save money.

Though premiums increased, Berkshire now expects underwriting gains at Geico to fall in 2009 from 2008.

Operating profit in noninsurance businesses fell 47 percent to $574 million, despite a 22 percent increase from utilities and energy operations.

Profit fell by two-thirds in manufacturing, servicing and retailing businesses such as industrial conglomerate Marmon Holdings, the carpet maker Shaw, and several jewelry and home furnishings businesses.

Berkshire said each manufacturing business "has taken actions to reduce costs, slow production and reduce or delay capital spending until the economy improves."

The NetJets Inc unit, which provides private jet services to executives, lost $253 million before taxes.

Its longtime chief executive Richard Santulli stepped down this week and was replaced by David Sokol, who chairs Berkshire's MidAmerican Energy unit. Many analysts view Sokol a potential successor to Buffett as Berkshire's chief executive.

In Friday trading, Berkshire Class A shares closed up $1,150, or 1.1 percent, at $108,100, while its Class B shares rose $22.69, or 0.65 percent, to $3,540. Both remain more than one-fourth below their record highs set in December 2007. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel and Lilla Zuill; editing by Carol Bishopric and Andre Grenon)