Not a very interesting market to see today since most of the stocks are quite stagnant. As for celestial, as my model predicted, it touched and pierced its 200MA ($1.45) and closed above $1.45 yesterday, and that marks a slight moveup after that. Today's opening was as $1.51 and trading between $1.52 to $1.56. You will probably ask why I have not taken a position in celestial yet. Reason is because it is still slightly unclear of the current situation. Will it surge upwards or downwards? As of now of what I see, the market seems to be slightly confused, while STI is trading slowly upwards, penny stocks especially from china is still taking a beating down but celestial has rised about 8 cents since thursday till now. Is there any particular good news for celestial that caused this? I do not know and I can't find any news on that. Secondly, from the chart I see:
- the 20MA has crossed the 50MA,
- RSI slowly going down to 50%,
- stochastics down slowly towards 50%.
However, looking at the volume traded, it is dropping more and more, and with smaller volume, it is still rising! My prediction is I believe the shortists have been caught by this surpise move already and probably turning long for this counter, and in order to make big money, this stock will probably have to dip back to $1.45 to scare those investors who are in at $1.52-$1.56. My general feel is any stock that rise have to move back to touch its 20MA, but then in this case, the 20MA is way too far, this will shock alot of people. So, a very slow trend up is highly possible, but it must touch back its 20MA to be safe. This is my thought on celestial. I will need to analyse more once today's closing is done.
Next, 2 other companies that I'm doing my homework:
These 2 water companies have been on my portfolio for quite some time and I have seen the highest and lowest it went since from May till now. Their core business is mainly water treatment and some other stuffs which can be read from their prospectus, and recently Bio-treat has caught my attention by being on Business Times. It seems that there are some issues with the CEO (again or not I'm not sure because I have not read the full report) and SGX is monitoring this counter. As for Asia Env, it also went on Business Times, but getting the IFC's support of a certain amount of funds for its projects. How did I get Asia Env in my portfolio previously? While I was looking for information for Bio-Treat in May, I found out that Asia Env was the next water treatment company from china and comparing the resources of the two companies, Bio-Treat has a much stronger infrastructre and resources but at 1 point of time, Asia Env was trading at a much higher price! Cut the long story short, everyone seems to be afraid of Bio-Treat as it has alot of management problems. Let me do some homework on these 2 stocks and see which is a better and safer choice to enter.
Other information, Yen/USD:
116.46-116.49 - 0.08 which is ok for the US economy. Today is another day for the US market to release some jobs information, and they are speculating that it is good results from what I read on the forums. Lastly, I just saw the clip from Gareth (inthemoneystocks.com) and he was talking about the NASDAQ chart which had formed a double top. He was mentioning about this in particular, where investors would think that once the double top has been broken, they can go long on the NASDAQ. However, right after it broke the next day, it starts to dip back again. He was mentioning this as every investor would have anticipated the double top sign and big buyers will actually let it break the double top, giving the investors a wrong sign to enter the market!
This has led me to ponder and realised how not easy to make money from the stock market, as human psychology plays such a big factor! What has the stock market become of now as compared to its origin, where it is meant for companies to gather funds to support their projects?
After collecting my profits from celestial, it's time to take a short break first and enjoy the weekend. :)
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