In the midst of my revision for my exams, I will check the stock markets occasionally for updates and the latest happenings.
As US took quite a tumble these few days, take note of something, I remembered that the highest for dow was at around 14100 as I do monitor US markets at night, and look at what it is now? It is now at 13676, which signified a drop of around 500 points! A big gap down after the bull run, and oil nearly peaked a high of $90USD.
Besides dow, NASDAQ seems much stronger due to apple, high sales from the iphone release. Remember what I have mentioned, in any recession, technology counters will be the one to lead the stock market out of the recession. In any case, the market seemed to have taken a slight turn at this point, and I must emphasize on 1 point. When the market starts to turn around, it doesn't just drop 500 points within a few days and then bullrun up again. It has to go through a consolidation period to re-adjust its value and confidence level again to reach new highs.
I was talking to my broker and he mentioned to me about the CNA forums for the SGX market. It was an interesting topic as he identified some ideas from the forums itself. I always thought that the forums is just a place for people to share whatever they know, or probably induce people into buying certain stocks etc. But a forum is just a forum, how many investors are there to actually push the particular counter? He highlighted this point to me, being that I'm partially right, that it's not going to be like pushing the whole of STI, but then, it is good enough to push a particular counter to a certain price level! Imagine this, X made a post telling everyone to buy counter Y, saying that it will rise today and prepare to collect money. Probably at this point, he identified this, maybe 1 person can buy only 5 lots, but if there are 10 people who buy at 5 lots, it will be 50 lots. Ok, so how many retail investors are there browsing this forums? How many of them are knowledgable in the stock market? He pointed another thing, which is X who asked everyone to buy in, would probably have already bought in before the day itself, and when people start to buy in, the selling can be averaged out and would have been out from that counter already.
Next thing I personally noticed in the forums, is that they always say that dow should follow STI, US markets should follow the asian market etc. In my opinion, MAYBE the asian market could be the market leaders in the future, but I do not really see it as a leader within these few years. Why? First things first, STI to lead dow? I personally find that this is a joke comparing Singapore to US. Look at Singapore, our population is around 4+ million, and the amount of land we have. Now look at US, how big is the US? Also, what does the Singapore economy depend on? What are our strengths that keep us being one of the first class countries all these years? Manufacturing and export may be one of them, but our dear MM lee who does have foresight, already knew of our future growth and kept rebranding ourselves as the air-hub, education-hub, financial-hub etc. What does this mean? We are actually branding ourselves as a door for US and europe to actually tap into the asian market which is still at its growth stage. Along that, Singapore provides the human resources available to bridge the 2 parties together. That's our strength for our economy growth, and for us to replace dow? Probably that means the opposite of what I stated just now!
But in any way, asian markets depend heavily on US as exports from asia go to US and europe. If I remember correctly, almost 70% of the consumer goods in US is imported from asia. If a recession hits US, do you think they will buy anymore? When they do not buy as much as they do, do they want to import anymore? It's a chain effect, so those people in the forums who keep cursing the US stock market to crash, in my opinion are relatively ignorant of the chain effect.
STI have closed for the day, and it seems that today's closing was at -1.25%. However, from what I see, it took a drop of near of 2%. Why? This morning, I saw the market at around +0.7%, which was seemed to be recovering. As of now, it closed at -1.25% from its opening, which to me signifies a close to 2% drop! It is very interesting to see how the US market fares tonight, and I may take a position again. What am I looking at? The same few, celestial and Asia environment. The third one which I'm still considering whether it's worth to take the risk is hor kew, due to its rights at $0.02. The main share which is trading at $0.195 currently, seems relatively a high risk to enter. I will study the charts tonight after my revision and decide whether to buy the rights warrant at $0.115. Apart from that, I have read the charts for celestial, and it seems that $1.36-37 seems to be the key support level. More to come! :)
No comments:
Post a Comment