Close to a 1% drop in dow and nasdaq and with a 1.32% drop in S&P, it has reflected in the asian markets, showing a sea of red across various indexes.
With the release of:
- a 0.2% rise in CPI, and
- a 0.3% rise in cost of living,
I'm still not sure whether this was the key factor that caused the drop. Why? Well, it is definitely expected that the cost of living and CPI will rise as we progress technologically and our standard of living. Commodities will rise in accordance to this. Simple fact of life is if you can recall how much you paid for a meal at the restaurant or at a food centre 1-2 years ago and to now? However, the rise of a 0.2% in my opinion is not that huge of a concern, but my main concern would be still deflation of the USD and high oil prices.
YEN/USD still at this range of 110.08-110.10 - 1.31, which shows the weakness of the USD, and some indications of a recession in today's Business Times, which pretty much sums up the rest.
Tomorrow is options expiration, which traders will groom up their portfolios, is a key factor to take note. Next is the holiday next week in the US, which is Thanksgiving. During this period, it is normal to have light volume trading which normally in my opinion won't let the market fall. It is also quite risky as light volume is able to control the pricing of the stocks and push it up and down accordingly.
My take on the US market, is that it may probably open lower and close near to its opening or even positive! Why do I say that? If you had watched the charts of the US markets (dow, nasdaq, S&P), you would have noticed that it suffered heavy selling during the last trading hours and yesterday, it started in the early afternoon (in US) and during the last hour of trading, there was a sudden surge of buying! Apart from this, if you watched the youtube video from inthemoneystocks.com, they indicated the number of put warrants and call warrants that are bought up, which indicated a 1.5x more for put warrants than call warrants. This can be seen that more people believe that the market is going downtrend. In the video, he also said that when this happens, think the opposite. The chances of the market going uptrend for that day would be higher as big money won't let the shortists make the money that easily! Also, comparing the pool of puts and calls, the big money will also make more from the puts than the call warrants!
In Singapore market, it looks kinda gloomy, with most of the counters in my watchlist have suffered a small pullback, probably profit taking. As for the chart for celestial, I forgot to include the trading candle for yesterday, but it is still within the channel that I have indicated. As of now, it is now:
- trading at $1.28,
- opened at $1.28, indicating a drop of 3 cents
- lowest at $1.27
- highest at $1.29
- volume traded is 479
I would need to see the 20,50 and 200MA after today's closing, RSI, MACD and stochastics to see its direction. As far as it goes now, $1.25 is a good entry point, but if it closes below that, it probably will hit back to $1.20 which is the next resistance point that I indicated.
It will be interesting to see if I can get the call and put warrants ratio for STI, which will strengthen the probability as well. :)
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