I'm back from my holidays, and it was not that bad in Hong Kong and unfortunately, without Internet access there. As for the past few days, I have seen 2 days of bullish actions from dow and the other 2 US indices, and in my opinion, if today is going to be another day of bullish run, this gap up is really scary as dow has surged about 400-500 points already! As far as I read from the news and reports, the surge was due to investors' expectation of another rate cut again! This website is quite useful for understanding the rate cut effects:
http://library.hsh.com/?row_id=88
As I mentioned before, another rate cut will probably weaken the USD again and commodities like oil, will need more USD to be paid, as well as gold etc. With the weakening of the USD, Yen will most likely appreciate against it and the winding of the Yen Carry Trade will probably make investors suffer again. Currently, Yen/USD is at 110.00-110.01 + 1.30.
STI, probably for the 1st time I have seen, has increased a whooping 108.50 (3.22%)! Probably due to dow's major rise, most of the major asian indices have taken more than a 2% increase. As for STI, most of my watchlists have only risen abit. As I mentioned before many times, during the initial bullrun, blue chips will have to rally first. Today, most of the blue chips like Singtel, SGX and probably Cosco have taken a major move forward.
Now, as for the counters I'm have been monitoring, Celestial was in a good position when it falled below $1.16. Unfortunately, I wasn't in Singapore and I can't really monitor the situation. Now currently closed at $1.21, I will see the performance from the US side to determine as more updates of their economy will be released and there's a speech from the feds as well. I have mentioned earlier on that most of the signs for Celestial (RSI, stochastics, MACD) are quite good for a buy in, the $1.16 was a good buy in and probably safe price. Since it was missed, another one I think will be good is at $1.19-$1.20 or probably $1.21 depending on the market sentiment. This time round, I won't be expecting a super surge from celestial to hit a large gap but a chance of getting about a 10 cent surge and I will probably get out. Reason being is with the Yen/USD, which I'm not comfortable with and I will lock profits whenever possible as for now.
Another interesting counter is FJBen, which has been in my watchlist for many months. It is interesting to see now, that it is giving out entitlements of $0.13 per lot, which to me is quite attractive. Its due date is on the 5th of Dec, which is coming near as well, and I'm very much tempted to try this counter but I will check out more tonight before making any commitments. A short introduction for this counter is it deals with branded stuffs as such.
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