STI closing for 20th Nov 2007

Today, STI closed with 3,438.27 (+26.55). Unexpected as it is, as it was showing a negative breakdown this morning until this afternoon. The sudden surge from nikkei first was the turning point, which affected HSI and STI in the afternoon.

As far as I have gathered, there were 2 different theories behind this surge. One was from hong kong, where they received some news with regards to a fed meeting and speculated to have a rate cut again. This is also reported in money.CNN.com:

At 2 p.m. ET the Federal Reserve is set to release minutes from its meeting last month, which investors will read carefully for clues as to whether the central bank will continue to cut interest rates or leave them unchanged at its final meeting of the year Dec. 11.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/20/markets/stockswatch_ny/index.htm?postversion=2007112006

The next one was from Japan, and because of this, nikkei shot back with a +168.96 points (+1.12%). It was from investors that they felt that the counters are all oversold and the buying back resulted in the above. I read about this in the office, which I believe it was from the forums but I couldn't find the thread again. Let me dig again and see whether I can find it or not.

If you have read one of my posts previously, I mentioned about a comment made by Gareth(inthemoneystocks.com) on the patterns that formed on the charts (http://dimitric-trading.blogspot.com/2007/10/5th-oct-2007.html). With the NASDAQ chart as an example, it was an anticipation due to the technical patterns and such, the wrong signal was given as I also anticipated a fall in the STI due to the technical patterns.

With regards to the rate cut, it is important for the fed to determine the severity of the rate cut. By cutting the interest rate again, it will boost the financial markets once again for the short term, but this will result in the USD to become smaller again compared to other currencies! Remember as well, that oil is also traded in USD. My feel is that the growth of the US markets are still above last year and the fed probably won't want to do that again. Currently, YEN/USD is at 110.17-110.19 - 0.48, which seems to be more stablised.

As for celestial today, as I mentioned a few days ago, the resistance line was at $1.20 and today, the lowest point it hit was at $1.20. Below is the chart:

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As shown on the last candle for today, it has a long tail all the way down to $1.20. When it touched that, probably it was the timing as well, that the news came out and it started to move up again in participation of the fed meeting. It has closed above yesterday's closing, and it could probably consolidate within the channel between $1.20 and $1.25.

Today, I was looking at YZJ, and wao, I must say this counter is very very very volatile! It dropped to a low of $1.86 and from there, it started to move up very quickly! Fundamentally speaking, this counter is very good as the shipping industry is very hot now. I missed the chance of entering as I was tied up with work, and when I saw the counter again, it was already trading up at $1.99 and moving up. My policy is never to catch a running train, as it is a big risk to carry the burden if it stops suddenly!

That's probably all for now, as I'm waiting for a chance to enter celestial soon. As for the US markets, HP's strong quarterly results should stablise the markets for the start.

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