Missed out quite a number of days to update as I was held up by work, work and more work.
Closed my US positions for the past week:
MGM @ $11.40 (+US$38)
GE @ $16.42 (+US$374.5)
RF @ $5.91 (bought in at $6.15) (-US$92)
Total profits for US market: +US$320.50
Opened the following position in SG market:
Ramba @ $0.705
Total profits since Aug 12th: $16,914.12 (for SG market only)
After closing the US positions, it seems that I lost quite a fair bit in forex as well. The initial positions I took was at USD 1.44 and recently at USD 1.416. Currently, USD is at 1.399 against SGD and I am looking at $1.401 - $1.404 to convert back. USD is being hammered nowadays and the US government is kinda supporting this weakening of the dollar.
If you noticed since the rally in March, the fall in dollar has been triggering the rally in the market. What does it mean? Take note of the recent rallies in dow, where bank counters are not rallying as much as commodities. Since commodities are pushing this rally, the weakening of the dollar is pushing investors to flee to commodities instead! Look at gold itself, currently at $1058+, it is going crazy! I did mention in one of the posts earlier that I felt gold wouldn't rally too much past the $1000 mark but looking at it right now, it is really going wild and it may easily go through $1100 if the dollar keeps weakening. In fact, Nikkei is suffering from this as yen keeps appreciating. As an exporting country, they may not survive past this if they were to depend on internal consumption.
2 comments:
Hmmz...the weakening of the US dollar would mean that commodities are now relatively less costly, resulting to a mild rise in commoditiy prices (Jim Rogers teaches that commodities and commodity stocks are often not related to each other)
Also take note of the 25 basis points increase in the aussie interest rate. Failure of the carry trades would inevitably result to a flight to safety to traditional currencies like the yen (but this is all pure textbook)
- cheers
you are right too, but I am commenting on a pure technical point of view, thus with this you can see the correlation between USD and the US markets. It's chaotic evil :)
Anyway, I really don't think imo investors would want to flee to Yen, as Japan is mainly an export country, and Yen appreciating is doing no good to their economy..
Post a Comment